Friday’s baseball slate brings us a potential playoff preview. The Atlanta Braves have surged to the top of the NL East this season, making a bid to return to the postseason after a disappointing 2025 season. The Cardinals are in the same boat; what most (myself included) assumed would be a rebuilding team is firmly in the running for a postseason appearance.
The Braves come into this game as -163 moneyline favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. St. Louis is a +135 home underdog, with the game total is set at O/U eight runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Braves vs. Cardinals preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers.
Timeless ace Chris Sale takes the mound for the Braves. The 37-year-old continues to play the best baseball of his career in Atlanta, working on his third straight season with a sub-2.60 ERA. As usual, Sale brings the gas with his fastball, and his slider generates whiff after whiff. Atlanta’s rotation has struggled with health and efficiency all season long, but Sale has been the man they can depend on every five days to throw his best.
Opposite Sale is Cardinals starter, Kyle Leahy. A bit of a late bloomer, the 29-year-old is in his first season as a full-time starter. So far, he’s holding his own with a 3.86 ERA through 17 starts. However, the advanced numbers aren’t in his favor; he has one of the worst average exit velocities in the majors at 91.8 miles per hour. Though he does get good extension, he isn’t generating a lot of swings and misses, and the formula is bound to bite him sooner rather than later.
Both offenses have been bang-on average this season. Atlanta has largely been carried by its stars: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Drake Baldwin have been rock solid all season long. They’ve struggled to keep Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy, but he’s been solid when in the lineup. St. Louis has been more or less a three-man show as well: breakout star Jordan Walker, newly minted All-Star Iván Herrera, and recently extended rookie JJ Wetherholt have been the three-headed snake carrying the Cards all season long. That’s the trio that Sale will have to reckon with the most.
The bullpens are where the real gaps show. Atlanta’s bullpen ranks sixth in cumulative xFIP, while St. Louis is all the way down at 24th. Their mass bullpen exodus at last year’s trade deadline has come home to roost. In a game where the starting pitching is already imbalanced in favor of Atlanta, that bullpen could prove to be a significant difference maker.
Braves vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
It’s too difficult to overlook the pitching gap. Leahy will be hard-pressed to match Sale’s pace, and will eventually hand things off to an inferior bullpen. With these lineups so easily matched, it comes down to who can avoid the mistake pitches. I trust Sale and Co. far more than I trust Leahy and his ‘pen.
