The Mercury are hosting the Fever on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 170.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Fever Preview
The Mercury and Fever just faced each for back-to-back games in Indiana two weeks ago and these clubs split the mini series with one win apiece.
The Mercury are coming off a 77-66 loss to the Sky, but Phoenix has won four of it’s last six, as the team attempts to move back up standings after a poor start to the season. Still, the Mercury are just 8-14 and they rank eighth in net rating.
Meanwhile, the Fever are 12-9 and rank sixth in net rating. The team just cruised to back-to-back double-digit wins over the Sparks and Aces with Caitlin Clark (back) out of the lineup. Then, with the superstar returning last night in a limited role, Indiana lost to the Sparks in Los Angeles, 106-92. With this being the second leg of a back-to-back set for the Fever, Clark will be out tonight.
The guard is having a career-best season, leading the Fever with 20.5 PPG, but believe it or not, the club has looked better without her. Indiana is 3-0 with a 19 PPG margin of victory with Clark inactive and with the guard off the floor, the Fever’s net rating is +12.0, compared to +2.1 with her on.
Indiana’s offensive rating is nearly identical without Clark, but the club’s defensive rating is 9.7 points per 100 possessions better with her off the court. The Fever are only allowing 76 PPG with her inactive, which would be the best mark in the league if it was their average for the season. Kelsey Mitchell has also flourished in Clark’s absence, leading the team with 24.5 PPG. Now, we obviously have more data with Clark playing than without, so this isn’t to say the Fever are a truly a better team with her missing, but these stats are notable and can’t be ignored.
The concern for Indiana is that the team just played last night, whereas the Mercury haven’t played since Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if the Fever can maintain their strong from sans Clark or if their lack of rest will catch up to them vs. this Phoenix team that has been playing better as of late.
As previously mentioned, the Mercury have won of their last six and their improved play has been a result of Kahleah Copper thriving and Valeriane Ayayi stepping up. Copper has been cooking, scoring 20+ in seven of her last eight, and Ayayi has scored 18+ points in four of her last six, with those four games all being wins for Phoenix. In the other two games during this stretch, Ayayi was held to just nine points and the Mercury lost both tilts.
With Satou Sabally now with New York and Jovana Nogic (personal) done for the season, the Mercury need Ayayi to provide offense for the team to be successful, but the guard producing tonight could be a challenge considering how strong the Fever’s defense has been without Clark.
Mercury vs. Fever Pick, Best Bet
While the Fever’s lack of rest is worrisome, their defense has been outstanding without Clark and they should given this weak offensive Mercury team issues despite playing last night.
Phoenix is just 3-7 at home this season and I like backing the Fever to win this game.
