The Braves snapped the Pirates’ three-game winning streak on Wednesday with a dominant pitching performance in a 3-0 victory.
Now the two teams will square-off this afternoon at 12:35 p.m. ET in the rubber match of this early July series.
Let’s preview this matinee clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Whatever magic pixie dust Bryce Elder was using to be an effective starting pitcher at the beginning of 2026 has worn off. So much so, that the Braves skipped the right-hander’s last turn in the rotation. Elder hasn’t worked since all the way back on June 27, when he surrendered five earned runs to the Giants over four innings. In the six outings Elder has made dating back to May 27, the 27-year-old has registered an 8.70 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. He’s also surrendered 2.10 opponent home runs per nine in this stretch. It’s not difficult to see why Walt Weiss and company decided to give Elder a bit of a sabbatical last week.
Ironically, Elder and Atlanta’s bats are opposed today by Mitch Keller — the king of starting strong then falling apart in the middle of a campaign. Unfortunately for the veteran RHP, the regression has kicked in a little earlier than usual for Keller in 2026. Since May 30, a span of seven starts and 36.0 innings, Keller has struggled to a 7.50 ERA with a 5.95 FIP. To be honest, the former second-round pick hasn’t really pitched well at any point this season, as he enters the day with a third percentile opponent batting average (.292), a 12th percentile xERA (5.38) and a paltry 15th percentile strikeout rate (17.3%). As the veteran presence in an extremely young Pittsburgh rotation, Keller has done nothing but underwhelm.
If there is a silver-lining for the Pirates, it’s that the club’s bats may be better equipped to take advantage of their soft matchup than the Braves’ lineup. Even with injuries to Spencer Horwitz (hamstring), Oneil Cruz (hand) and now Konnor Griffin (finger), Pittsburgh ranks second in batting average (.283), third in wRC+ (126) and fourth in wOBA (.360) across the past 30 days. In that same span, Atlanta ranks dead-last in wRC+ (78). It’s been a tough go for the squad without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring).
Braves vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pirates ML (+100)
Give me the home dog. The Pirates are 11-8 as the underdog at PNC this season, and in a matchup of floundering starting pitchers, I’ll side with the offense that has clearly been better across the past four weeks of action.
