While the World Cup has taken over the sports scene in the United States over the last month, it’ll take a break tonight as the competition has been whittled from 48 to eight. With the NBA free agency period also in a lull, all focus is on baseball for tonight. All 30 teams will take the field, though only eight of the 15 games are available as part of tonight’s featured DFS contest.
But of the hundreds of players available, not all are created equal; since DFS users only have $50,000 of salary to budget, choosing the right value picks to pair with stars is paramount. Here are three I’d consider for tonight’s slate:
- SP Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins vs. CLE ($6,900)
- 1B/2B Edouard Julien, Colorado Rockies at LAD ($3,200)
- OF/SS Tyler Tolbert, Kansas City Royals at NYM ($2,500)
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
SP Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, $6,900
The rookie left-hander hasn’t had such a great start to his career, posting a 4.96 ERA and averaging just 12.9 FPTS per game, but for as many low moments as he’s had, he’s coming off of a good start, pitching six innings of six-hit, two-run ball while striking out 10 (24.7 FPTS) in a win over the Colorado Rockies on June 28. Prielipp has been better than his raw stats indicate; he has a 60th-percentile expected batting average and a 66th-percentile chase rate, though he’s been somewhat prone to giving up hard contact. Plus, Prielipp has averaged 9.8 more FPTS per game at home than on the road.
He has a very favorable matchup tonight in the Guardians, who have posted the league’s second-lowest OPS across the last 30 days despite going a respectable 10-14 in that stretch. Cleveland ranks second-to-last in barrel rate and fourth-to-last in average exit velocity, mitigating his two biggest weaknesses, and while he might give up a few more walks than usual because of the Guardians’ low chase rate, they haven’t been able to take advantage, posting the lowest expected batting average. In his lone career start against Cleveland, he pitched five innings of one-run ball (17.0 FPTS).
1B/2B Edouard Julien, Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,200
Julien has only produced positive value once in his four-year MLB career, but he’s started to turn it around as of late. Across his last 10 games, the southpaw has posted a .259/.459/.333 slash line (6.7 FPTS per game), and he’s had a trio of double-digit performances in his last seven contests. Julien combines underrated power with an excellent batting eye; more than 50% of his hits this season have been hit 95 miles per hour or faster and he finds the launch-angle sweet spot at a 99th-percentile clip, a strong combination at homer-friendly Dodger Stadium.
He has a friendly matchup in Roki Sasaki ($7,000), who’s ice-cold, following up the best stretch of his career by pitching to a 10.06 ERA across his last four starts and averaging just 2.61 FPTS per game across that span. Sasaki has really struggled with his control throughout his career, as his walk rate this season sits in the 31st percentile, and he’s given up just a ninth-percentile hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Japanese right-hander has predominantly thrown four-seam fastballs to lefties, and Julien has a solid .453 xSLG against right-handed four-seamers. In general, Julien has an OPS 178 points higher against righties than lefties.
OF/SS Tyler Tolbert, Kansas City Royals at New York Mets, $2,500
Tolbert made MLB history on Tuesday night, becoming the first player in the expansion era (post-1961) to record a hit in 12 consecutive plate appearances. While that streak came to an end in his final at-bat of the game, when he flew out, his three games of brilliance saw his overall OPS rise from .475 to .976, and while he’s highly unlikely that he’ll produce another five-hit game (after all, only two players besides him have ever had two five-hit games in a row), it’s worth taking the flyer on his bat staying hot. He’s a classic contact-speed guy with 260 career stolen bases in the minors, and he’ll return quite the surplus value on his DFS salary if he even produces one hit and one stolen base.
His matchup is decent; Christian Scott ($7,200) had a solid start to the season, but he’s fallen near or below his season average of 14.3 FPTS in all three of his most recent starts. Advanced numbers aren’t friendly to Scott; he has just a 24th-percentile expected ERA, far higher than his actual 3.49 mark, and he issues a lot of walks, which could help Tolbert get aboard. Additionally, Scott has been slightly below-average at preventing runners from taking additional bases. If Kansas City follows Tolbert with a right-handed hitter, Scott tends to throw slower sweepers to righties, giving him more time to steal a base.
