Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s loaded slate: Juan Soto, Dillon Dingler and Samuel Basallo.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +295 | I’m going back to the Juan Soto well, after predicting the slugger’s 20th home run of the season on Tuesday. The veteran owns 99th percentile marks for the year in both expected wOBA (.432) and expected slugging (.613). Now he’ll face a Royals bullpen game that should feature Steven Cruz and Randy Dobnak. Advantage: Soto. |
| Samuel Basallo | +313 | The Orioles have just eight long balls as a team over the past 14 days — Basallo has hit half of those. Basallo has shown his value as a platoon bat this year, posting a .262 ISO and a 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Colin Rea sports a 6.60 ERA when pitching away from Wrigley so far in 2026. |
| Dillon Dingler | +385 | Dingler comes into tonight’s matchup with Jeffrey Springs in possession of a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.531) and a 94th percentile expected wOBA (.380). He’s got 19 home runs and a .252 ISO. As for Springs, he gave up an even 4.00 opponent home runs per nine during the month of June. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Samuel Basallo 1+ Home Run (+313)
This is one of those spots where something has to give. The Orioles have not been hitting the ball well the past couple of weeks, but Colin Rea is taking the mound for the Cubs, and he’s in possession of a 6.60 ERA when pitching away from Wrigley so far in 2026. Rea has also surrendered a whopping 1.55 opponent home runs per nine on the road, along with a 12th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.8) for the season as a whole. So… Why Basallo? The Orioles have just eight long balls as a team over the past 14 days — Basallo has hit half of those. The rookie backstop has certainly shown his value as a platoon bat this year, posting a .262 ISO and a 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. It’s no wonder why Baltimore has already locked up the 21-year-old till 2033 with a lucrative contract.
Dillon Dingler 1+ Home Run (+385)
I’ve accidentally started an all catchers edition of home run props. Let’s see if Dingler can help me not regret my decisions. I’m not sure if what I’m about to say is possible, but it feels as if the 27-year-old is in the midst of a second straight breakout season. Like, Dingler was amazing on both sides of the ball in 2025, yet things have gone to a new level in 2026. Dingler comes into tonight’s matchup with Jeffrey Springs in possession of a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.531) and a 94th percentile expected wOBA (.380). He’s got 19 home runs and a .252 ISO. He’s a legit power threat all of a sudden. Did he Space Jam away Cal Raleigh’s powers this winter? As for Springs, the lefty has conceded multiple long balls in five of his last six outings. Heck, Springs gave up an even 4.00 opponent home runs per nine during the month of June. Rough.
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+295)
I’m going back to the Juan Soto well, after predicting the slugger’s 20th home run of the season in Tuesday’s article. That was Soto’s second straight start with a long ball, which makes sense, given that the veteran owns 99th percentile marks for the year in both expected wOBA (.432) and expected slugging (.613). On Wednesday, it appears that the Royals will be opting for a bullpen game, with reliever Steven Cruz opening. He’ll surely only face Soto once, but the RHP is surrendering a hefty 3.57 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in 2026. I would then assume that journeyman Randy Dobnak would be used by Kansas City in a bulk role. Dobnak’s only thrown 19.0 innings at the MLB level since the beginning of 2024, and he sported a 5.65 xERA in Triple-A this season. It’s not exactly a murderer’s row of arms. Look for Soto to take advantage.
