In a rare five-game series, the St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at the moment. So far, the Brew Crew have taken all three contests, including both parts of the doubleheader yesterday. The Redbirds are out for revenge in this divisional battle, which begins at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Brewers vs. Cardinals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
Now winners of four straight and eight of their last 10 outings, the Brew Crew are still surging. They’re 58-33 with a +137 run differential that ranks second in the MLB, producing two-way results both at the plate and on the mound. Milwaukee’s .735 OPS sits ninth among all clubs on a slash line of .255/.337/.398. They win on plate process, contact and speed more than power — with a low 20.9% K% and a high 10.6% BB%, the approach is some of the best seen from any team across the sport. That’s helped overcome a low .143 ISO that falls fourth-to-last and just 84 home runs, third fewest. Looking at this matchup in particular, the Brewers are set up nicely against a right-hander after slashing .260/.342/.412 for a .754 OPS.
LHP Kyle Harrison gets the starting nod after going 8-1 in his 16 games thus far. His 2.82 ERA is excellent, as is a 1.08 WHIP and 99 strikeouts across 79.2 IP. That’s good for a 30.6% K% that ranks in the 95th percentile around the MLB. The Brewers’ relievers are fourth in ERA at 3.42 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 13.7% K-BB%.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds have competed well this season and are 47-43 with a +3 run differential. It’s an admirable effort from an underdog, but they’ve also dropped four straight games now. This lineup produces 4.57 runs per game but has struggled at home with just 3.68 on the year, which is notable heading into this one. The Cardinals have a .715 OPS that slots in at 17th and a .245/.322/.393 slash line. They’re keeping strikeouts way down at a 20.3% K% and an 8.5% BB%, so the approach is a positive for this club. However, much like Milwaukee, a .148 ISO falls 22nd, and they’re 19th in home runs with 102 this year. There’s a lot to like about the lineup, but St. Louis does have a slightly lower OPS against lefties at .707 on a .248/.326/.381 line.
RHP Michael McGreevy draws the start after going 3-7 in 17 games. He carries a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into this game but has just 60 strikeouts across his 95.1 IP. The bullpen is also 20th in ERA at 4.32 with a 1.38 WHIP and a 9.2 K-BB%.
Brewers vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -149 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Cardinals are underdogs with +124 odds to win outright at home. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs.
Best Bet: PIT Pirates race to three runs (-105)
Harrison is certainly the better pitcher in this game, especially with McGreevy’s xERA at 5.60 and his xBA at .292. The latter is due for regression, and he was hit hard in his lone start against Milwaukee with five earned runs on seven hits and three walks, striking out six batters across just 4.0 innings. Harrison, meanwhile, went 6.0 innings of scoreless ball with just four hits allowed and two strikeouts in his game against St. Louis earlier this season. So, the Brewers have the top arm and the better bullpen as established earlier. They also have the far superior offense and land on the better side of their splits in this one. This is a game in which I’m very comfortable taking the run line for Milwaukee, especially on the heels of last night’s 10-2 blowout.
