The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers close their three-game series Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. The records still point one direction, with Colorado at 38-55 and Los Angeles at 60-33. This series has played much tighter than that gap. The Rockies pushed Monday into extra innings, then stole Tuesday’s game with three eighth-inning runs. Los Angeles still owns the deeper lineup, deeper roster, and better season. Colorado has made the Dodgers play uncomfortable baseball for two straight nights. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction, preview
That is why the pitching matchup carries so much risk. Roki Sasaki enters at 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 75 strikeouts, and 32 walks across 75 innings. His last four starts have produced 19 earned runs in 17 innings. The contact profile explains the damage. Sasaki has allowed 90.4 mph average exit velocity, a 45.6% hard-hit rate, a .360 wOBA, a .336 xwOBA, and 12.9% barrels. Gabriel Hughes brings a different kind of uncertainty for Colorado. He has three scoreless MLB innings, one strikeout, one walk, and his first big-league start ahead of him.
The Dodgers’ offense is the cleaner side of this handicap. Los Angeles is hitting .272 over its last 10 games with 55 runs, 93 hits, 15 doubles, 11 homers, 43 walks, a .355 OBP, and a .767 OPS. The walk total jumps off the page against a rookie starter with no MLB workload proof. Shohei Ohtani, Tommy Edman, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández, and Kyle Tucker give Hughes a miserable first pass through the order. Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing sitting trims some depth. The top seven still give Los Angeles enough traffic, power, and platoon balance to build innings early.
The Rockies’ confirmed order runs Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, Cole Carrigg, TJ Rumfield, Kyle Karros, Troy Johnston, Edouard Julien, Ezequiel Tovar, and Hunter Goodman. That gives Colorado a lefty-heavy look against Sasaki and keeps the full-game total in play. Moniak is hitting .344 over his last 10 with three homers, seven RBI, and a 1.150 OPS. Carrigg is even hotter, hitting .438 with four doubles, two triples, one homer, 10 RBI, 12 runs, and a 1.210 OPS. Goodman adds the thump that the earlier lineup projection lacked if he stays in.
Rockies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The bullpen context keeps this from becoming a simple Dodgers blowout read. Colorado’s relief group has thrown more than 25 straight innings without an earned run, and Juan Mejia and Jordan Romano handled Tuesday’s late leverage. That run deserves respect. The workload is the catch. Monday went 11 innings, Mejia threw 24 pitches Tuesday, and Romano needed 23 stressful pitches to survive the ninth. Hughes probably is not giving Colorado six innings. The Dodgers should get multiple cracks at a bullpen that has been excellent, taxed, and asked to hold this lineup down again.
The weather also helps offense, with Dodger Stadium sitting around 80 degrees near first pitch and clear conditions through the game window. Dodgers ML is too expensive, and the run line asks too much from Sasaki. Rockies team total over 4.5 has some appeal, but it depends on Sasaki breaking again. Dodgers team total over 5.5 is safer, but the price is taxed.
The best bet is Dodgers team total over 6.5 at +115, playable to even money. The aggressive add is full-game over 10 at -105 or better.
Projected score: Dodgers 8, Rockies 5.
Best bet: Dodgers TT o5.5 runs (+115) vs. Rockies
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