Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s loaded 16-game slate: Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman and Corbin Carroll.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +308 | Soto comes into Tuesday’s action in possession of a 100th percentile expected wOBA (.430) and a 99th percentile expected slugging rate (.605). Now he’ll get the opportunity to face Seth Lugo. In his last eight starts, Lugo’s got a 5.91 FIP and he’s conceding 2.27 opponent long balls per nine. |
| Freddie Freeman | +363 | Freeman is on fire at the moment, hitting .400 with a .475 wOBA and a 205 wRC+ across the past two weeks. Meanwhile, left-handed opponents have been Michael Lorenzen’s kryptonite this season, slashing a ridiculous .365/.423/.640 off of the veteran RHP. It’s not just Coors, either, as Lorenzen’s conceded more long balls on the road in 2026. |
| Corbin Carroll | +335 | German Marquez is going to be involved in the Padres’ pitching plans on Tuesday. That’s all you need to know. LHBs are averaging exactly 3.00 home runs per nine off Marquez with a robust .591 slugging percentage. If Carroll gets a couple of cracks, he’ll take advantage. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+308)
We all know it’s been a horrible season for the Mets. However, none of the blame can be placed at the feet of Juan Soto, who is in the midst of yet another spectacular offensive campaign. Soto’s counting stats won’t blow you away, as he missed a few weeks earlier in the year due to injury, but the veteran outfielder comes into Tuesday’s action in possession of a 100th percentile expected wOBA (.430) and a 99th percentile expected slugging rate (.605). Now he’ll get the opportunity to face Seth Lugo, who has been developing a bit of a home run issue as the season’s worn along. It’s actually sort of wild how Lugo’s performance has flipped on a dime. Prior to his outing on May 18, Lugo had allowed one long ball in his first 52.2 innings of work. In the eight starts since? Lugo’s got a 5.91 FIP and he’s conceding 2.27 opponent long balls per nine. Woof.
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+363)
For as much as Michael Lorenzen is probably relieved that this game isn’t taking place at Coors Field, it’s not like the veteran has been Cy Young when pitching on the road in 2026. In fact, Lorenzen has a 5.68 ERA within the split and he’s somehow surrendered more than half his home runs outside of the altitude in Colorado. Go figure. Left-handed opponents have been Lorenzen’s real kryptonite this season, slashing a ridiculous .365/.423/.640 off of the veteran RHP. Freddie Freeman is left-handed. Freddie Freeman is also on fire at the moment, hitting .400 with a .475 wOBA and a 205 wRC+ across the past two weeks. In a surprising twist, Freeman’s never taken Lorenzen deep in his career. I think that changes on Tuesday night. Max Muncy (+288) is another solid bet in this spot, as is Shohei Ohtani (+207) — obviously.
Corbin Carroll 1+ Home Run (+335)
Carroll’s power numbers are a little down from where they sat last season, as the former Rookie of the Year posted career-highs in home runs (31) and ISO (.282). Still, it’s difficult to ignore the left-handed phenom when you know that German Marquez is going to be involved in the Padres’ pitching plans on Tuesday. Marquez will serve as San Diego’s opener according to reports. What that exactly means is open for debate. The veteran RHP made his first appearance out of the bullpen for the Padres last Thursday against the Dodgers, going three innings and facing 13 batters. If we see a similar role for Marquez this evening, that should mean two plate appearances for Carroll at the top of the Diamondbacks’ lineup. In 2026, LHBs are averaging exactly 3.00 home runs per nine off Marquez with a robust .591 slugging percentage. Need I say more?
