All season long, Paige Bueckers has announced that she has arrived. She’s built on her stellar 2025 stats, which saw her make All-WNBA Second Team as a rookie, improving across the board, and her Dallas Wings have been much more competitive, already surpassing last season’s win total.
Bueckers made a statement in Dallas’ first game against the New York Liberty, beating the Eastern Conference giants and 2024 WNBA champs by 15 points, but tonight, she’ll have a chance to make another one as the Liberty host the Wings for an 8 p.m. clash. For its part, New York made a statement of its own last Friday by beating the league-leading Minnesota Lynx.
For the Liberty, Satou Sabally (concussion) and Leonie Fiebich (foot) are both out, and the Wings will have a completely healthy roster.
Despite its injury concerns, New York is a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 Moneyline), with the total set at 175.5 points. Dallas is +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Wings at Liberty Best Bet
New York Liberty to Win by 6+ (-105): The Liberty rely heavily on three-pointers, and the Wings allow opposing three-point shooters to convert at the third-highest rate. New York is also a slightly better finishing team, and Leonie Fiebich’s absence could mean a slightly more post-oriented game plan than usual.
Wings at Liberty prediction, pick
The Wings were widely expected to improve before the start of the season, as they’d picked up first overall pick Azzi Fudd in addition to center Jessica Shepard, but even the most optimistic Dallas fan has to be happy with the team so far. Bueckers and Shepard were both named All-Star starters, and despite being outshined by second overall pick Olivia Miles, Fudd has managed 13.3 points and 1.8 steals per game on 47-38-75 shooting splits. Meanwhile, the Liberty rank third in net rating and fourth in both offensive and defensive rating despite injuries limiting Fiebich to 14 games, Sabally to 13, and Sabrina Ionescu to nine. New York had been in poor form prior to the statement win over the Lynx, but Breanna Stewart, Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones were all masterful in that contest.
Stewart should have a fairly friendly matchup against the Wings’ porous interior defense. This season, Dallas has given up the fifth-most attempts within five feet and allowed opponents to convert at the fifth-highest rate, and while the Liberty have also allowed a few too many layups (especially given Stewart’s and Jones’ defensive accolades) they’ve done a slightly better job challenging those attempts. Additionally, New York has gotten downhill with slightly more regularity on offense and finished marginally more efficiently, as among the 31 players with at least three attempts per game within five feet who have converted at least three-fifths of their attempts, three play for the Liberty and only one for the Wings.
New York should have a slight edge in the rebounding battle, but Dallas is a pretty solid rebounding team, too. So far this season, the Liberty rank second in rebounding percentage and the Wings seventh, but both teams have snagged a majority of all available boards this season, and while Dallas backup centers Li Yueru and Awak Kuier both dealt with injuries earlier in the season, both are available tonight. New York might well have to win the rebounding battle, since the Wings are the better transition team, ranking third in points off of turnovers and second in fast-break points while the Liberty rank last and third-to-last, respectively. New York will also have to play physically; both teams have played pretty disciplined, but the Liberty have been among the best at drawing fouls and Dallas among the worst. Astier might especially be needed to drive against Fudd, given that she ranks fifth in on-off plus/minus among players with at least 600 minutes of action.
Both teams are somewhat reliant on shooting, as New York ranks second in three-point attempts per game and the Wings ninth. The Liberty have also shot the ball better than Dallas has, as they rank fourth in three-point percentage, and among their five players averaging more than four triples per game, only Ionescu (a 27.7% shooter this season who’s shot 34.8% from beyond the arc for her career) is shooting below 38.5%. For their part, the Wings have done a good job chasing opposing shooters off the three-point line, limiting them to the second-fewest attempts from distance per game, but opponents have shot the third-highest percentage on such looks. Given that neither of Dallas’ primary perimeter defenders has amassed one defensive win share thus far, that performance isn’t solely luck.
It’s unlikely that New York will shoot 40% from beyond the arc like it did against Minnesota, since Stewart made two of her four triples in that contest and Ionescu went a respectable three-for-10, but the Wings have been gettable enough from beyond the arc that the Liberty should be able to stick to their Plan A. They also might trade threes for drives with Fiebich injured, and that could serve the dual purpose of challenging Shepard, Kuier, and Li inside while also getting Dallas’ most impactful player, Fudd, in foul trouble. As long as New York takes care of the ball, it should be able to cover the spread comfortably.
