Two clubs vying for postseason sports in the National League square off Tuesday night with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves’ rough patch continues as they defend the top spot in the NL East with hopes of contending for a World Series; the Pittsburgh Pirates are fighting to remain above .500 in a tough NL Central and get back into the Wild Card picture.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Braves vs. Pirates matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Atlanta Braves
It’s tough to say that one player, even a superstar, can hold up an entire franchise. However, the Braves are just 7-15 following the injury that sent Ronald Acuna Jr. back to the IL on June 10 and are only 52-37 on the campaign following this terrible stretch. Since he hit the bench, the club is fourth-to-last in runs scored and home runs while dipping to third-to-last with a .642 OPS. Those are some paltry numbers, especially in comparison to 4.91 runs per game that rank seventh in baseball and a .727 OPS on the season that ranks 15th. Overall this year, Atlanta’s slash line reads .248/.314/.413 with a .165 ISO that falls 11th, plus 116 home runs, eighth most. The Braves also maintain a low 21.2% K% with an 8.0% BB%, though the former looks much better than the latter. Tonight, they also get the plus side of their splits after slashing .253/.319/.419 against right-handers for an OPS of .738.
RHP Hurston Waldrep enters this start with just two appearances under his belt this season. The 24-year-old tossed 5.1 innings in his line start earlier this month and allowed three earned runs on five hits and a walk, plus four strikeouts. He threw 2.0 innings at the end of June with two hits and four walks allowed, plus three punchouts. He’ll have support as the Braves’ bullpen is the best in baseball, garnering an MLB-leading 3.07 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a 15.7% K-BB%.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates looked like a team destined for the postseason through the early months, though their pace has certainly slowed in recent weeks. They’re playing in perhaps the most difficult division in baseball, so a 46-45 record certainly isn’t bad given expectations especially. They’ve also maintained a positive run differential which currently sits at +33 behind a batting order that produces the third most runs per game with 5.22. In OPS, Pittsburgh comes in at second overall with a .762 mark fueled by a .262/.340/.422 mark, impressive production all around. The Pirates may have an elevated 24.0% K%, but a 9.5% BB% does help balance it out, and aggressiveness has worked in their favor this year anyways — they have a .160 ISO and 114 dingers, which both rank in the sport’s upper half. Beyond that, they’re slashing .264/.346/.421 for a .767 OPS against right-handers like they face this evening.
Superstar RHP Paul Skenes gets the start with a 6-8 record on the campaign across 18 games. He holds a 3.62 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and 119 strikeouts, still generating a 30.1% K% and 5.9% BB%. His velocity has been ticking down this season though in near-linear fashion, a concern this his arm may be tiring. The bullpen is largely average, sitting 22nd in ERA at 4.37 with an elevated 1.39 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
Braves vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -149 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Braves are underdogs with +124 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at eight combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes under 8.5 hits + walks + earned runs allowed (-129)
From the way people are talking about Skenes this season, you’d think the guy has a sky-high ERA and is nowhere near elite status anymore. Yes, he’s been tagged with some losses and is much more inconsistent than in the past. Yes, his fastball velocity is declining, which is a little bit scary. However, he still keeps runners off the bases and has a 93rd-percentile K% while having some good, old-fashioned bad luck preventing him from performing closer to his 2.76 xERA. Forget that he’s coming off a couple of rougher outings and just look at the matchup. The Atlanta offense has been horrendous since Acuna’s injury for roughly a month now. That’s a game we want to play here, especially with Skenes still delivering some quality results. He should get the better of the Braves today for under 8.5 combined H + BB + ER, and I like him to record a win at +139 odds as well.
