Pitting the best team in the WNBA against the worst one tonight sounds like a great idea, right? It won’t earn top billing on the schedule, but the Minnesota Lynx take on the Connecticut Sun at 8 p.m. ET on Monday evening. Granted, there are a couple of major injuries to note that could keep this game somewhat competitive, so anything can happen in this league.
Here’s a betting pick and prediction for this Lynx vs. Sun game on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s WNBA action.
Lynx vs. Sun preview, prediction
Minnesota remains atop the WNBA standings at 15-5 and is 7-3 over its last 10 games. To do this without superstar Napheesa Collier, still sidelined after offseason ankle surgery and yet to debut this season, has been quite the impressive display of roster construction. Four players are averaging close to 15 PPG or greater. Natasha Howard is hooping with 17.2 points and 8.1 rebounds a night, Courtney Williams averages 15.9 points with 5.3 boards and 4.0 assists, and Kayla McBride produces 14.8 PPG. Of course, the star of the show has been leading Rookie of the Year candidate Olivia Miles with 18.5 points and 5.7 assists a game, however, she’s sidelined for this contest due to injury.
The Lynx still have an absolute squad. Overall, the team sits second in scoring with 90.3 PPG with elite efficiency at a 48.2% FG% (second best) and a WNBA-leading 36.9% 3P%. Players know their roles, including the supporting cast with pieces like Nia Coffey. The team also paces the league with 36.7 rebounds per game and is fifth in AST/TO ratio, though an AST% of 62.1% falls dead last. Plus, the defense is excellent with a 98.9 DEFRTG which also sits tops across the landscape, with the next-closest squad at 102.3. Across the board, this is a contending roster that should be taken seriously even with Miles and Collier out.
The Lynx won’t face the most difficult competition, to put it lightly. The opposing Sun are dead last in the WNBA based on W/L record at 4-16 and are 2-8 over their last 10 contests at that. The killer for the club is an outright lack of cohesive offense. Connecticut averages a WNBA-worst 79.5 PPG and falls dead last in OFFRTG at 98.5 and TS% at 50.5%, ranking 13th in FG% (43.0%) and last in 3P% (27.2%). The Sun are also 14th in AST% and 12th AST/TO ratio. Those numbers are just incredibly difficult to overcome, especially when unable to space the floor, even despite falling eighth in rebounding with 33.7 boards a game and managing to be somewhat respectable at 10th in DEFRTG.
Unfortunately, third-leading scorer Aneesah Morrow won’t play tonight due to personal reasons, leaving 10.5 PPG and a team-best 9.4 rebounds sidelined. Leila Lacan’s 12.5 points and 4.5 assists are team-best marks, as are her 2.1 steals. Longtime veteran Brittney Griner also pitches in 12.2 points with 5.4 boards and 1.8 blocks. However, there’s little other higher-end production to go around in this lineup as Aaliyah Edwards, Kennedy Burke and Diamond Miller play key roles.
Lynx vs. Sun pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lynx are a -11.5 favorite with -800 odds on the Moneyline. The Sun are listed at +550 to win outright with the game total hovering at 165.5 points.
Even with no Miles or Collier, this matchup may not even be a fair fight. The Connecticut approach is so disjointed and lacks cohesion as a unit, and there’s a clear absence of higher-end star power or players who can generally shoulder a large workload on any given night. Minnesota is the antithesis of this, with both Howard and Williams very comfortable playing major roles when their number is called in front of a handful of role players who simply show up and do their jobs.
Between those factors and the development that Morrow won’t play for the Sun, this shakes out as a game the Lynx can certainly cover the spread in. They’re far more efficient scorers and have the WNBA’s top defense, which could entirely shut down an opponent that’s without one of its few consistent sources of offense and is one of the least effective teams with the ball. Even if Minnesota’s typically high-scoring attack produces at a slightly lower level than usual, watch for the defense to completely stymie Connecticut. Don’t overthink this one.
