The Astros and Nationals play the first game of their three-game series on Monday, July 6.
Washington is a -120 moneyline favorite, while Houston is -101 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 10 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Astros vs. Nationals game.
Astros vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Get this: the Nationals are favored against the Astros despite Miles Mikolas starting. What year is this? Apparently 2026 as the Nationals have the top run-scoring offense in the majors, even beating out the Dodgers in the same amount of games. The Astros, meanwhile, have an average offense with a 45-47 record, slightly worse than the Nationals’ 46-45 record.
To be clear, the Nationals are small favorites and are at home, which is certainly giving the team an advantage—one they’ll need with Mikolas pitching. The 37-year-old has a 5.44 ERA across 18 appearances (seven starts) and 84.1 innings, while allowing 18 home runs (T-11 MLB). Mikolas was inconsistency personified in June, allowing five earned runs once and six earned runs twice, but he also pitched three scoreless outings in between. For what its worth, two of his three scoreless performances were short outings (3.1 innings and 4.2 innings). The third was 7.0 against the Mariners, an impressive feat.
Typically, Mikolas’ starts are offensive-centric, but he’s sometimes capable of churning out a good outing. Although smaller sample sizes, Mikolas is a worse pitcher at home but is better during night games this season. Perhaps that’s another advantage Washington will get. Most likely, however, it’ll be the offense that leads the Nationals to a victory.
Mike Burrows is Houston’s starter, holding a 5.58 ERA through 90.1 innings and 17 appearances (16 starts). June was mostly a poor month for the 26-year-old, pitching four games of exactly 5.0 innings each, allowing at least four earned runs in all of them. He also had a 1.0 inning start and a one-run, two hit 6.0-inning start in June as well. This is a difficult matchup as Washington’s offense has carried the team to an above-.500 record thus far.
Astros vs. Nationals Pick, Best Bet
Flashback to the 2019 World Series with this matchup. The rosters are vastly different now, but the outcome will remain the same. Nationals win this game and take the series on the back of their offense.
