We’re through to the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which means the pressure is only growing with each passing match. On Sunday, fans are in for a treat as two of the best teams remaining in the field square off. Mexico has flashed incredible upside with four consecutive wins and a clean sheet in each, looking like a true contender to hoist the most coveted trophy in sports. Meanwhile, England remains one of the favorites in the tournament but teetered on the brink of elimination by a matter of minutes to begin the knockout rounds.
Kickoff for Mexico vs. England is scheduled for Sunday, July 5 in Mexico City. Let’s dive in for a top prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this 2026 FIFA World Cup match in the Round of 16.
Best bet for Mexico vs. England
- Moneyline draw: England has all the talent in the world, but is yet to truly gel during this World Cup run. An overreliance on Harry Kane means other players will need to step up in this match for the Three Lions, but a Mexico defense that has kept four straight clean sheets may have the means to hold them in check. This match takes place at altitude in front of a home crowd in Mexico City, so between that and the chemistry between their players, El Tri can force a draw at the end of regular time.
Mexico vs. England prediction, pick
For Mexico, this tournament has been nothing short of a smashing success thus far. While unofficial, the FIFA World Rankings place El Tri at No. 10 overall, an increase of four spots on the leaderboard since the last official update on June 11. The odds on DraftKings Sportsbook still have the side listed as a long shot to win the World Cup at +2500, but that’s arguably a compliment given that they’re tied for seventh among all nations in the futures market.
The results thus far have been nothing short of spectacular for the Mexican side. Javier Aguirre’s squad claimed the top spot in Group A behind three consecutive victories for a perfect nine points, finishing that stage with a goal differential of +6. It wasn’t just their position in the standings that was immaculate, though — Mexico didn’t allow a single goal through those fixtures, notching three consecutive clean sheets behind a standout defense. The unbeaten run included wins of 2-0 over South Africa, 1-0 against South Korea and 3-0 vs. Czechia. as an added bonus, all three came in front of the home fans in Mexico City at Estadio Azteca (Mexico City Stadium, per FIFA). Once the Round of 32 rolled around, El Tri defeated a very solid Ecuador squad 2-0 to advance, taking an iron-clad grip on the match in the first half and never looking back. That result marked Mexico’s first knockout win in 40 years, a massive achievement.
As for England, the opposition entered the World Cup as one of the favorites to win it all. Now, the Three Lions are listed at +800 odds, fourth among all squads on DraftKings Sportsbook. In the latest FIFA World Rankings, the English sit No. 4 overall as well. While the sacking of former manager Gareth Southgate was supposed to usher in a new era of football for the national side, it’s possible that not all that much has actually changed yet.
Thomas Tuchel’s side has experienced some significant growing pains throughout his first World Cup at the helm. England won Group L with seven points on a pair of outright wins and a draw, tallying a differential of +4. The first victory came in a dominant 4-2 showing against Croatia in the opener, but the squad’s performance has looked far from impressive since then. The Three Lions disappointed with a scoreless draw against Ghana in game two, and even a 2-0 win vs. Panama to close group play didn’t feel like a truly convincing result after a rocky first half. With unsteady form heading into the Round of 32, the English nearly saw their tournament end prematurely against DR Congo. After allowing the opening goal just seven minutes into the game, they trailed for most of the day before a pair of goals from superstar Harry Kane at 75′ and 86′ rescued them from the brink of elimination.
So, what’s in store for this much-anticipated clash in the Round of 16?
On DraftKings Sportsbook, England is a +140 favorite on the Moneyline in regular time and holds -140 odds to advance. Mexico enters as a +220 underdog on the Moneyline with +110 odds to move on. Bettors can also take a draw at +215 value.
The odds check out as the sheer talent and depth of the English is difficult to match — in terms of star power, they have Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice, Nico O’Reilly… the list goes on endlessly. However, this squad is yet to fully gel, evidenced by largely shaky play and numerous miscues throughout the World Cup so far. They’ve taken too long to settle in during most of their matches, and were it not for the heroic late-game efforts of Kane, we’d be writing about a different team entirely. Simply put, their heavy reliance on the striker may prove fatal since he won’t show up with a brace in every game.
Look at Mexico, though. This is a squad playing with chemistry that oozes off the screen — even in still photos, you can tell how connected these players are. Julian Quinones is a star with three goals in four games, Raul Jimenez is rising to the occasion with a pair of his own, and Roberto Alvarado has orchestrated as a playmaker. “Stifling” may be an understatement to describe a back line and overall defensive unit that has outperformed any other in the World Cup. Even against the talent of England, they should hold their own. With the stadium packed with thousands of Mexican fans at elevation, El Tri brings the necessary guts and tactics to keep this game in hand.
Best Bet: Moneyline draw (+215)
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