What better way to celebrate Independence Day than with America’s pastime? Two of the oldest baseball clubs duel today as the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs battle at the iconic Wrigley Field in an NL Central showdown. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Cardinals vs. Cubs matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have done quite well this season, now sitting 46-39 on the campaign with a +12 run differential. For a largely young roster with few truly established stars, that’s a huge win compared to expectations on the year. St. Louis averages 4.66 runs per game and has a .722 OPS via a slash line of .248/.325/.397. The club also has 97 homers with a .149 ISO that ranks 21st, so while the power is respectable, it’s not stellar. However, their 20.1% K% is excellent and an 8.6% BB% isn’t bad, either. Tonight, the Redbirds face a lefty as well. Against similar pitching, the slash line is very similar to the overall numbers with a .714 OPS, but it’s also worth noting this lineup has an improved .767 OPS since June 1.
RHP Kyle Leahy starts tonight after going 6-4 in 16 games this year. He brings a 4.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP, striking out 67 batters in 81.1 IP. The Cardinals’ bullpen behind him is also relatively average at 18th in ERA at 4.24, plus a 1.36 WHIP and a low 9.5% K-BB%.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs find themselves trailing in the NL Central at a full 6.0 games shy of first, but a 49-39 record is still quite good. Plus, they’ve gone 8-2 over their last 10 games and have a +47 run differential on the year behind one of the sport’s best offenses. Chicago produces 5.10 runs per game and is fifth in OPS at .752 as well, slashing .245/.339/.413 to get there. This is a well-rounded attack that sits fifth in ISO with 112 homers, but they don’t compromise plate approach either, leading the MLB with an 11.2% BB% alongside a nice 21.3% K%. The bats are hot over the last couple weeks with an impressive .840 OPS and a stellar .236 ISO — tonight, they face a right-hander after going .239/.334/.408 for a .741 OPS in the split.
LHP Shota Imanaga gets the start for Chicago after going 5-6 in 17 games. He has a 4.30 ERA but a much better 1.08 WHIP, complemented by 92 punchouts in 98.1 IP. The club’s bullpen is 13th in ERA at 3.98 with a 1.29 WHIP and a 11.9% K-BB%.
Cardinals vs. Cubs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cubs as -163 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Cardinals are underdogs with +135 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at eight combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Game total over 2.5 HR (+130)
The Cardinals aren’t a power-heavy club, but Jordan Walker can mash with 19 home runs and they do have some other bats who can get one out of the field of play in a hurry. Against Imanaga, the potential for the long ball is higher than usual since he’s given up 20 dingers in 17 games, second most of any NL pitcher. Has he been a little unlucky? Maybe, but he also gave up three of them last time he faced St. Louis. The Cubs already have plenty of power potential to begin with, and Leahy brings a second-percentile grade in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate to this game along with a seventh-percentile barrel rate. Over 2.5 combined homers looks nice at plus value.
