After its opening 7-1 win over Curaçao, Germany looked unstoppable, but as it turned out, that was the high point of Die Nationalelf’s competition, and they were eliminated against Paraguay on penalties in the Round of 32. Now, the Albirroja will face France, which has truly looked untouchable so far, with the hopes of pulling off an even more notable giant-slaying.
The match will kick off at 5 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. The winner will go on to face either Canada or Morocco in the quarterfinals. Those two sides will meet earlier Saturday.
Les Bleus are -550 favorites to win in regular time (-2000 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Paraguay is +1700 (+850 to advance). There are +600 odds that the score will be knotted after 90 minutes.
Below, I’ll break down this unexpected showdown and provide my favorite bet.
Paraguay vs. France Best Bet:
- France to Win to Zero (-145): Paraguay probably won’t even look at goal much, but even if it does get the opportunity, France’s back line is legitimate (especially William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Mike Maignan), and its high press should be a problem against the Albirroja, the worst passing team in the competition. Paraguay can keep Les Bleus’ attackers at bay, but only for so long.
Paraguay vs. France prediction, pick
When the Albirroja went down 3-0 to the United States at halftime of their opening match, their prospects of making it to the Round of 16 looked grim, but they were gritty, holding off an onslaught of shots from Turkey and withstanding a Miguel Almirón red card in order to win their second group stage match, 1-0. Then, knowing a draw would get them through, they did enough to earn a critical point against Australia, and despite missing two opportunities to settle the penalty shootout against Germany, they settled their nerves and converted the third. France had a slow first half against Senegal, but it settled in, scoring three in the second half and never looking back en route to a perfect four-for-four record and a plus-11 goal difference. Les Bleus weren’t perfect in the first half against Sweden, either, but no team is capable of turning it on once the floodgates are open quite as much as Didier Deschamps’ side.
There are basically no holes in France’s roster. Regardless of what combination Deschamps has thrown up front, he’s found success; Kylian Mbappé is tied for the Golden Boot lead with six goals, and Michael Olise leads all players with five assists. Ousmane Dembélé, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, has four goals and two assists, and Bradley Barcola (two goals) and Desiré Doué (one) have chipped in as well. On the surface, other teams have created better chances — Les Bleus have only managed the 10th-most expected goals per match — but no team has gotten more looks on target, and few have completed as many passes in the final third. Additionally, it’s not like France has been weak defensively; while it has allowed just the 19th-fewest expected goals per match, it’s allowed the fifth-fewest shots on target per match and recorded the most recoveries while winning both ground and aerial duels at high rates. Les Bleus have also played cleanly, committing the fifth-fewest fouls, and their high press has forced the third-most turnovers leading to a shot. France’s wing-backs and defensive midfielders might not be quite as strong as in some previous tournaments, but its central defense, highlighted by William Saliba and goalie Mike Maignan, has been magnificent. Les Bleus haven’t allowed multiple goals in a competitive match since October 13, 2025, when they drew 2-2 with Iceland without either Adrien Rabiot or Aurélien Tchouaméni.
Paraguay, which beat each of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay during South American qualifying, will certainly not be afraid. The Albirroja don’t have quite as many big names as France, but they don’t have a weak squad, as Julio Enciso was a regular starter for Ligue 1 side Strasbourg this season, and Matías Galarza, who also has a goal and an assist, is teammates with Almirón at Atlanta United. Additionally, José Canale, who converted the winning penalty against Die Nationalelf, scored four goals in Argentina’s top flight in 2025. Still, Paraguay plays a defensive game; it has managed the third-fewest shots on target and the second-fewest expected goals per match of any team in the tournament, and it has the lowest pass completion percentage, both overall and within the final third. The Albirroja have mostly made up for that on the other side of the ball, as while they’ve allowed the fourth-most expected goals of any team still in the competition, they’ve limited opponents to the ninth-fewest expected goals per shot while recording the most tackles and third-most blocks. Despite not pressing much, they’ve also done a good job turning their high turnovers into shots. Paraguay has plenty of defensive talents, from Atlético Mineiro’s Júnior Alonso, Palmeiras’ Gustavo Gómez, Dynamo Moscow’s Juan Cáceres, and Sunderland’s Omar Alderete forming an experienced and compact back line. Additionally, Orlando Gill leads Liga Argentina in clean sheets and made a few clutch saves in the penalty shootout.
Les Bleus will be on the front foot all match, constantly putting pressure on Gill just as they did Jacob Widell Zetterström, Egil Selvik, Ahmed Basil, and Édouard Mendy before him, and while Gill might be in the best form of those four keepers — he has the best mark among them by goals prevented per 90 minutes — it seems likely that he’ll let at least one in. The Albirroja’s occasional indiscipline won’t matter too much in this one, as France’s lone weakness has been its poor performance from set pieces, but Les Bleus have been good enough from open play to score multiple anyway. Given that France hasn’t made many errors, it’s unlikely to gift Paraguay any easy chances. Much like Blågult did, the Albirroja should be able to keep Les Bleus at bay for a while, but France’s bevy of playmakers will break through eventually.
Best Bet: France to Win to Zero (-145)
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