On Saturday night, Major League Baseball celebrates Independence Day with 11 games on the scoreboard for under the lights. DraftKings has some fun special contests in the lobby, with the main slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET. With some great hitting environments on the board and a few aces taking the mound, plenty of stars are in the player pool, but you also may need to balance your roster with a few MLB DFS value picks. To help you as you search through the bargain bin for just the right option, check out my three MLB DFS Value Picks in this post, who bring big upside at a small salary.
- SP Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, $6,800: Young has at least 16 FPTS in six of his last seven outings and went off for 27.4 FPTS against the Mariners. The Reds’ offense has been struggling over the past month with the third-highest K% in the MLB and the sixth-fewest runs.
- 3B Caleb Durbin, Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, $3,000: Durbin has hit .392 with a .510 wOBA over his last 15 contests with five homers, four doubles and four stolen bases. He’s averaging 10.6 FPTS per contest over those 15 games coming into a favorable spot against Sam Aldegheri of the Angels.
- OF Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,200: Mitchell has both power and speed upside and has hit for 10+ FPTS in four straight games while averaging 11.1 FPTS over his last eight games.
Let’s dive in and take a closer look at these options that come with low salaries but high ceilings this Saturday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Independence Day Special [$50K to 1st]
Top MLB DFS Value Plays
SP Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, $6,800
Young has a 3.48 ERA on the year despite a 10-run outing at the end of April against the Astros. Since then, Young has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts, averaging 16.3 FPTS per outing. He has at least 16 FPTS in six of his last seven outings, with a high point of 27.4 FPTS against the Mariners.
Young has 20 strikeouts in 23 innings over his last four outings and a 2.35 ERA. He is in a favorable matchup against the Reds, who have the third-highest K% in the MLB over the last 30 days and have scored the sixth-fewest runs over that span. The main cause for concern is that Great American Ball Park can be very hitter-friendly when it’s hot. If he can overcome that issue, though, he should be able to once again bring solid value for a play under $7,000.
3B Caleb Durbin, Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, $3,000
Durbin homered on Friday and is up to seven dingers in his last 20 games and five homers in his last 15 contests. He started slowly in his first season with the Red Sox but has turned things around and hit .392 with a .510 wOBA over his last 15 contests while adding four doubles and four stolen bases during that span as well.
In those 15 games, Durbin has averaged 10.6 FPTS per contest and has multiple paths to success since he can have a big game with his speed or his power. He has still been hitting in the middle of the order and gets a good matchup Saturday against lefty Sam Aldegheri ($5,400), who has a 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his eight games in the majors this year. Durbin has hit slightly better against lefties than righties this season, but this play on Saturday is much more about Durbin finding such a good groove coming into this hittable matchup.
OF Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,200
Mitchell has 10+ FPTS in four straight games and is averaging 11.1 FPTS over his last eight matchups. The 27-year-old lefty has always had an intriguing ceiling but has struggled to stay healthy. He has played 76 games this season, though, producing eight homers, six stolen bases and a .359 wOBA.
Mitchell and the Brew Crew bashed their way to a 7-4 win at Chase Field, with Mitchell’s two-run blast opening the scoring. He’s 8-for-15 with five extra-base hits and five RBIs over his last four games. He will look to stay locked in on Saturday in a very favorable matchup against Merrill Kelly ($5,800), who has an 8.13 home ERA this season and has let lefties hit 11 homers against him this season with a .264 ISO, 45.7% hard-hit rate and a 15.4% barrel rate.
