How about another matchup between these two teams? The Valkyries and Dream, playing for the third time in the last nine days, get to test their mettle once more. Will Golden State complete the sweep, having won the first two matchups? Or can Atlanta fight back to get the win?
Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Dream are 4.5-point home favorites with -155 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Valkyries upset is priced at +130 with the game total set at O/U 161.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Valkyries-Dream game.
Valkyries vs. Dream Preview
Golden State continues to impress. After making the postseason in their debut season, a first for WNBA expansion franchises, they’ve taken another huge leap this year. At 13-7, the Valks have the third-best record in the league, and boast arguably the best defense in the league. Gabby Williams, their big offseason signing, has fit like a glove. While enhancing their already-excellent defense, Williams has stepped into their leading scorer’s role to elevate the offense. Between Williams, Veronica Burton, and bench star Janelle Salaün, they can three-ball you to death on any given night.
It was defense and threes that did Atlanta in the first time these two teams met. In that 11-point win, Golden State shot 47% from three while holding Atlanta’s star trio of Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Angel Reese to a combined 33% shooting. The second time around, the three-ball failed them, as the Valks shot 23% from deep. But they were able to lock down Atlanta’s star trio once again, holding them to an incredible 27.5% from the field. If they can repeat that kind of defensive performance, Golden State has to feel awfully good about their chances.
Plain and simple, Atlanta’s stars need to be better if they want to win. That starts with Howard. Arguably the most prolific off-the-dribble driver in the league, Howard needs to break the paint against this Valkyries defense in order to get them in rotation. They’ll also need more from Reese; Kiah Stokes is a great defender, but Reese has to win that matchup. If they can get the Valkyries defense on the back heel, they have to like their chances.
On the defensive end of the floor, Atlanta has to be conscious of over-rotating. Golden State has not been great at pressuring the rim, and they shoot more threes than any team in the league. If you stay within yourself and close out under control, you can force the Valkyries into plenty of contested heaves. However, if you overcommit to the drives, the Valkyries are excellent at finding the open shooter, and they’ll burn you. Head coach Karl Smesko will work hard on keeping his team focused to avoid unnecessarily open threes.
Now we know what to make of these two teams. Who is going to take home the win?
Valkyries vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
It’s awfully difficult to pick between these two sides. They’re both legitimate contenders, and could find themselves facing off come playoff time. Ultimately, the only thing I’m sure about is the defense; they went under this total in the first two matchups, and I’m expecting them to go three-for-three with another rock fight of a game. Atlanta should win this one, but it’ll be too close to find value on the spread; instead, I’m looking at the under for value.
