Sometimes, storylines at the World Cup surround one singularly brilliant player. Other times, an incredible team, punching above its weight or simply dominating, steals the spotlight.
Sunday’s 4 p.m. ET match between Brazil and Norway could fit either narrative. The Seleçao have been the best team in the history of the competition, winning five times, but Erling Haaland has been arguably the world’s most dominant individual player over the past few seasons, and the Red, White, and Blue’s success is inherently tied to his left foot.
The winner will face either Mexico or England in the quarterfinals. Those teams will meet later Sunday.
Brazil is a -105 favorite to claim the match in regular time (-210 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Norway is +300 (+165 to advance). There are +260 odds that the match will require extra time to decide.
Below, I’ll break down this titanic clash and provide my favorite bet.
Brazil vs. Norway Best Bet:
- Brazil Moneyline (-105): Both teams are brilliant in the attack and pretty gettable in the defense. The issue is that Brazil has been even better in the attack than Norway and not as gettable at the back. Vinicius Júnior and, potentially, Raphinha, are arguably the tournament’s most dangerous wing duo, and Norway’s wing-backs weren’t excellent even against Ivory Coast.
Brazil vs. Norway prediction, pick
Relative to expectations, the Red, White, and Blue have arguably been the more impressive side. Brazil topped a difficult group featuring Morocco, Scotland, and Haiti, but the Atlas Lions produced the better chances in their match, and it required a 96th-minute winner just to eke by Japan in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, Norway comfortably defeated Iraq and withstood a late charge from Senegal to secure second in Group I before Haaland fired his nation past Ivory Coast late. It might have been a disappointment to some that Norway was on the back foot against the West African side for much of the game, but the Elephants are a plenty talented team, and the tenacity Red, White, and Blue demonstrated against them could come in handy.
This Seleçao roster might be among the least talented that Carlo Ancelotti has ever taken to the World Cup, but it’s only poor by the standard set by Brazil’s incredible history. Vinicius Júnior has finally carried his club form over to his national team, and Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha has proven to be the capable No. 9 that this iteration of the Seleçao was thought not to have, scoring three goals. Gabriel Martinelli and Casemiro both stepped up in the win over the Samurai Blue, as Casemiro scored the equalizer off of an assist from Gabriel Magalhães and Martinelli netted the winner. As a result, Brazil has managed 2.45 expected goals per match and has taken the second-highest quality looks despite being extremely poor from set pieces, and it has been among the most successful passing teams. Additionally, the Seleçao’s defense has been good, even if not great; they’ve allowed the 15th-fewest expected goals per match while forcing the 14th-lowest quality shots. Brazil has also averaged among the most tackles per match while winning aerial duels at the second-highest rate, and its high press has forced an above-average number of turnovers. The Seleçao have not been very clean on either side of the ball, fouling a lot and making among the most errors leading to a shot, but with a center-back duo of Gabriel and Marquinhos and arguably the world’s best goalkeeper in Alisson, they can play aggressively and still get away with mistakes.
Still, Brazil can’t afford to make too many blunders against a team as talented as Norway. With Haaland leading the way and Antonio Nusa chipping in with a wonderful solo effort against Ivory Coast, the Red, White, and Blue have one of the tournament’s best attacks, as they’ve managed the sixth-most expected goals and the fourth-most goals overall, as well as the most expected goals per shot. Additionally, although Norway’s passing was among the least clinical of any team to advance out of the group stage, it was significantly better against the Elephants despite the West African side’s ability to influence the passing lanes. Defensively, the Red, White, and Blue have left something to be desired; as of the conclusion of the group stage, they allowed the eighth-most expected goals per match of any team still in the competition, and they ranked third-to-last in ground duel win rate. Additionally, despite pressing frequently, Norway wasn’t great at forcing high turnovers, and like the Seleçao, it fouls too much. Goalie Ørjan Nyland had a strong performance against Ivory Coast, saving Amad Diallo’s potential game-winner in the 97th minute, but he has had a poor tournament otherwise, and I’d give the advantage to Alisson in a potential penalty shootout. The Red, White, and Blue could especially struggle if right-back Julian Ryerson remains out, given that Marcus Holmgren Pedersen struggled against Yan Diomandé and Vinicius is even more threatening than the Ivorian teen.
The Seleçao should have the upper hand whether or not Ryerson plays, and they could benefit from some injury luck of their own. Raphinha could be available to play on the right in place of Rayan, who had an assist against Scotland but otherwise is far less accomplished than the Barcelona man. Norwegian left-back David Møller Wolfe didn’t do a great job against Diallo and Nicolas Pépé, and Raphinha would present a bigger challenge. Despite Marquinhos’ and Gabriel’s dominance centrally, it would be a huge surprise if Haaland didn’t score — indeed, he has found the back of the net in each his last 14 competitive matches for his country — but it’s hard not to imagine Brazil not scoring twice. The Red, White, and Blue are susceptible to teams that can be effective from headers and fast breaks; while the Elephants weren’t that, the Seleçao are, and their experience will end Norway’s fantastic run. Brazil hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals since 1990, when it got unlucky to run into World No. 3 Argentina in the Round of 16, and I can’t imagine that changing this afternoon.
Best Bet: Brazil Moneyline (-105)
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