Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Saturday’s full slate of MLB action.
| NRFI Bet Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
| White Sox at Guardians | -130 | Parker Messick has not allowed a run in the first inning of any of his 17 starts this season. On the other side, Sean Burke has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight, including last week vs. CLE. |
| Cardinals at Cubs | -115 | Shota Imanaga (13 of 17) and Kyle Leahy (12 of 16) have been good in the first innings this season, and the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, making it a much more pitcher-friendly park than it can be when the winds are blowing out. |
| Phillies at Royals | -105 | Jesus Luzardo has rough road splits but has still only allowed a run in the first inning of one of his 16 starts. Michael Wacha has not allowed a run in the first inning of 13 of his 16 outings. |
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-130)
The Guardians took the first two games of this series and will look to solidify their spot on top of the AL Central standings with a good finish to the weekend. They’ll give the ball to Parker Messick on Saturday in a solid pitching matchup against Sean Burke.
Burke has had his ups and downs this season but is 5-4 in his 17 games with a 3.69 ERA and 3.87 FIP. He has been trending upwards with a 3.25 ERA over his last eight games and a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed two runs or fewer in each of those three starts, including one against the Guardians two weeks ago in Chicago, allowing just one run over six innings with six strikeouts. He has a belew-average 61.5% NRFI rate this season, but the Guardians have been one of the worst teams in the majors at scoring in the first (just 25% of the time), and they have the third-highest NRFI rate in the MLB this season. Their lack of scoring early should be enough to counteract Burke’s first-inning inconsistency.
Messick has been excellent overall this season with a 2.85 ERA and 3.06 FIP, and he had a strong outing in Chicago two starts ago, holding the White Sox to two runs in 7 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. The young lefty has been especially dominant early in games and has yet to allow a run in the first inning of any of his 16 starts this season.
The first two games of this series both hit NRFI, and I think that streak runs to three with these two strong starters on the mound on Saturday.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-115)
The Cards and Cubs meet in another divisional matchup this Saturday night, and the wind is forecast to be blowing in, which makes this a solid option to consider. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, it’s a “stay away” spot, but the conditions look favorable for pitchers if the potential rain doesn’t cause any issues with the start time.
The Cubs have the second-highest NRFI rate of any team in the MLB this season, and they’ll go with Shota Imanaga, who has a five-game NRFI streak and has pitched 13 clean first innings in his 17 starts.
The Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy, who has pitched 12 blank frames in the first inning of his 16 starts this season, landing right on the league average of 75%. He has a two-game NRFI streak coming into this matchup, and he worked 4 1/3 innings against the Cubs, allowing just one run when he faced them at the end of May.
With both starting pitchers producing good results and a solid environment for pitching, this is a good value spot on Saturday night.
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals (-105)
Two veterans with good NRFI numbers throughout their careers and especially this season will face off at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday night.
Michael Wacha gets the nod for the home team, coming off back-to-back excellent starts against the Rays and White Sox. He went seven and 7 2/3 innings in those two outings, allowing just one run in each start and picking up 12 punchouts. He has allowed a run in the first inning of only three of his 16 starts this season, and he is a perfect 11-for-11 in NRFI in his nighttime starts.
On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has an 80.3% NRFI rate over his career, which is the fourth-highest of the 30 starting pitchers on the board this Saturday. He has allowed a run in the first inning in just one of his 16 starts this year and has an eight-game NRFI streak coming into this matchup against the Royals, who often struggle against lefties. Even though his road record is a little scary, he usually starts strong enough to deliver an NRFI hit.
