There’s no MLB team hotter than the Tampa Bay Rays at the moment, who enter Friday night on an eight-game winning streak as they continue adding to the division lead. They’re on the road to start a three-game series against the Houston Astros, who themselves have made a push in recent weeks towards the .500 mark as they look to salvage their season. First pitch tonight is at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Rays vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Astros prediction, preview
Tampa Bay Rays
It’s July 3 and the Rays are still atop the American League. The season’s playing out exactly as expected, right? After an eight-game winning streak, Tampa Bay now sits 51-33 with a +37 run differential. The club averages 4.58 runs per game and ranks ninth in OPS at .737 on a slash line of .261/.339/.398. Their success at the plate comes moreso through the approach rather than power — the 18.6% K% is by far the MLB’s best mark, and a 9.5% BB% is also quite good. A .137 ISO is lacking at dead last and 79 homers are near the bottom of the sport’s leaderboard, but 21 of those have come over the last two weeks behind an impressive hot streak. Tonight, they face a right-hander after slashing .267/.346/.416 for an impressive .762 OPS in the split as well.
RHP Nick Martinez is the starter tonight with a 7-2 record in his 16 games. He has a 2.66 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP, third and 14th in the AL, but only 58 strikeouts on the year across 94.2 IP. He also has an elite BB of just 4.4% while keeping hard hits to a minimum. The Rays’ bullpen is relatively average though, sitting 21st in ERA at 4.34 with a 1.27 WHIP and 12.4% K-BB%.
Houston Astros
Houston dropped two of its last three games, but outside of that brief bump, the club has played significantly more competitive baseball over the last couple months with a winning record in both May and June. They’re still third in a poor AL West at 43-46 with a run differential of -46 that’s tough to ignore. However, they post 4.49 runs per game and have a .725 OPS that ranks 12th in the MLB via a .242/.316/.409 slash line. The Astros are currently without Jeremy Pena, leaving one of the team’s best contact bats on the IL for the moment. However, that shouldn’t significantly impact the power since they have a .167 ISO that falls sixth, plus 116 home runs. They also have an 8.8% BB% with a 21.8% K%. Specifically in the split against right-handers like they face this evening, the numbers are nearly identical to the overall line at .243/.320/.408 for a .728 OPS as well.
RHP Spencer Arrighetti starts this game with a 7-4 record in 13 outings this year. He has a 4.00 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, also striking out 75 hitters in 72.0 IP. However, he’s regressed hard as of late, which could spell trouble tonight. On the bright side, the Astros’ bullpen has improved to 19th in ERA at 4.33 with a 2.40 mark over the last 30 days, plus a 1.04 WHIP and an 18.1% K-BB%.
Rays vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as -111 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Astros are underdogs with -108 odds to win outright at home, making this matchup a toss-up. The total sits at nine combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Spencer Arrighetti over 10.5 H + BB + ER allowed (-101)
Arrighetti opened this campaign in incredible form, allowing just seven earned runs across his first eight starts with a 1.34 ERA and 7-1 record over that span. However, he’s been an entirely different pitcher since the start of June. In his five starts since then, he’s allowed 25 earned runs for a 9.00 ERA and an 0-3 record. Ouch. It’s tough to tell what exactly the reason has been for the sudden regression, especially since he’s allowed plenty of free passes throughout the entire season even when at his best. In reality, this is probably just a correction to the mean for Arrighetti. In two prior campaigns, he had a sub-4.50 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP or worse, so this isn’t anything unusual. A date against the hottest offense in baseball may prove too much to handle, with Tampa Bay at a .939 OPS while hitting .312 with a .243 ISO over this eight-game winning streak. The Rays should rake against the righty, especially with him on the wrong side of their splits.
