Scrappy National League clubs kick off a three-game series under the Friday night lights, as the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
The Pirates (44–44, 4th NL Central) are coming off a four-game split with the Phillies in Philadelphia, and they’ve won five of their last nine contests. The Nationals (45–43, 4th NL East) have won four of their last five, punctuated by a series victory over the Red Sox at Fenway. The teams split four games at PNC Park in mid-April.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (6–5, 4.87 ERA) taking on Washington southpaw Foster Griffin (8–2, 2.93 ERA).
First pitch is at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Nationals enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -143 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pirates are +119 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 9.5 runs.
Pirates vs. Nationals Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates
Here’s a new one: Paul Skenes has lost nine straight games, and it’s not the offense’s fault. The Pirates head into Friday ranking third in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA, and fourth in total runs scored. Still, although the bats have held strong with an Oneil Cruz-sized hole in the order since the beginning of June, cracks are starting to form after Spencer Horwitz — and his .842 OPS — joined his teammate on the shelf last week.
But Pittsburgh’s true fatal flaws lie on the other end. Since the beginning of June, the club’s pitching staff has posted a 5.15 ERA — fifth-worst in the sport. Exacerbating their run prevention woes, the pitchers are backed by a porous defense that leads MLB in throwing errors this year.
The Pirates will hope for a better result on Friday, though it seems unlikely with Mitch Keller on the mound. The 30-year-old hurler is responsible for a 4.87 ERA and an even worse 4.99 xERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 17 starts (94.1) in 2026. Keller’s .283 xBA ranks in the bottom eight percent of MLB pitchers, and he’s coughed up at least three earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. Against the Nationals on April 14, Keller surrendered five earned runs over four innings.
Washington Nationals
While perhaps still a few years away, the Nationals are going to be making waves in the NL East soon enough. The club’s blossoming young core has helped catalyze a potent offense that ranks fifth in MLB in wRC+, fourth in wOBA and home runs, while pacing the majors in total runs scored. Although the bats have cooled off of late, Washington rosters four hitters, all under the age of 27, on pace to hit 25-plus home runs this season. That includes the surging Luis Garcia Jr., a righty platoon bat who boasts a 1.091 OPS with 13 home runs since May 25.
If only they could get some pitching. The Nationals rank 24th in ERA this season, backed by a struggling defense that has committed more errors than any other team in the majors. While the starting rotation has stepped on the gas recently — posting the third-best ERA since the beginning of June (3.32) — it consistently fails to pitch deep into games, often leaving the team’s fate up to its catastrophic bullpen.
Washington is hoping to ride a scorching run from Friday’s starter, Foster Griffin. The former first-round draft pick, 30, carded a 1.15 ERA across five June starts, delivering six-plus innings in four straight outings. In his first MLB season since 2022 and his first campaign as both a starter and with more than six appearances, Griffin’s season ERA is down to an impressive 2.93 over 17 starts (98.1 IP). However, his 3.90 xERA and a troubling barrel rate forecast some batted-ball windfall — and a regression could be on the horizon. Facing the Pirates on April 16, Griffin coughed up four earned runs over 5.1 frames.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pick, Best Bet
Friday’s series opener between the Pirates and Nationals features two mighty offenses and a pair of gettable starters. The clubs produced double-digit runs in two of their four matchups earlier this year, bookended by a 21-run explosion in the series opener and 15 more runs in the finale, with Foster Griffin on the bump. It seems fitting for the Independence Day fireworks to start a night early in the nation’s capital.
