We’ve got an NL East grudge match on deck for Friday night, as the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves kick off a four-game series at Truist Park.
Both clubs have seen better days and are now eyeing a chance to spark some momentum against their heated rival. The Mets (36–51, 5th NL East) have dropped 10 of their last 12 games, punctuated by a series loss in Toronto. The Braves (50–35, 1st NL East) have spiraled of late, losing eight of their last 10 contests after kicking off their homestand with a series loss to the Cardinals. The clubs first met last month in Queens, where the Mets took two of three.
Looking at the pitching probables, New York right-hander Christian Scott (2–0, 3.20 ERA) will square off against Atlanta righty Grant Holmes (4–4, 3.96 ERA).
First pitch is at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Braves enter as slight -112 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Mets hold -108 odds on the moneyline. The game total sits at O/U nine runs.
Mets vs. Braves Preview
New York Mets
The Amazins have been anything but in 2026, threatening for the worst record in the sport. However, it’s not entirely their fault. The Mets rank dead last in wRC+ and wOBA this season, but also sit 13th in xwOBA. Likewise, New York starters are liable for the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, despite ranking 11th in xERA. Is it batted-ball misfortune — or are the Mets legitimately cursed?
Regardless, New York continues to nosedive, tied with Washington for the worst record in MLB since the beginning of June (10–18). Bo Bichette is finally starting to settle in, and Juan Soto continues to perform at an MVP level. But too many players are either hurt, playing out of position, inexperienced or just flat-out underperforming.
One of the lone bright spots for the Mets has been their formidable bullpen, which has posted a top-three ERA (3.41). The only problem? It’s wayyy too busy. New York needs more length from its rotation, starting with Friday’s starter, Christian Scott. The 27-year-old righty has performed well this year, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and solid strikeout numbers across 10 starts. But he has yet to complete six innings, and his 4.64 xERA forecasts that a regression could be waiting for him when he does.
Atlanta Braves
It’s been all downhill for the Braves since Ronald Acuña Jr. landed on the injured list on June 9. The club has gone an MLB-worst 5–14 in that span, also losing star reliever Robert Suarez — and his 0.56 ERA — and All-Star starter Spencer Strider along the way.
Atlanta’s offense has anchored MLB since that fateful day, sitting 30th in wRC+ and wOBA. Several players are floundering; Drake Baldwin, meanwhile, has fallen off a cliff. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year hasn’t been the same since returning from the injured list on June 16, hitting .091 with a .298 OPS and a single home run in 14 games.
While the bullpen has remained strong, it’s far more vulnerable without Suarez, who, until his injury on June 19, hadn’t allowed an earned run since May 22. That spells trouble for Atlanta’s starting rotation, which ranks 26th with an ERA north of 6.00 since June 9. The Braves could really use a rebound performance from Grant Holmes. While he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in back-to-back starts, he failed to complete five innings in both. He heads into Friday with a 3.96 ERA, a far worse 4.76 xERA, and a 1.36 WHIP across 16 outings (77.1 IP) in 2026.
Mets vs. Braves Pick, Best Bet
Neither the Mets nor the Braves could buy a hit right now, and it seems ill-advised to bank on a high-scoring affair in Friday’s series opener. While Christian Scott and Grant Holmes have had their struggles this season, they could resemble Cy Young candidates against two of the coldest offenses in the sport. If not, their bullpens should be there to back them up. The only fireworks we should expect to see at Truist Park on Friday are the Red, White, and Blue ones that come after the game.
