Mired in a seven-game losing streak, the New York Yankees are on the most serious downturn we’ve seen from the club all season long. The vibes couldn’t really be worse, unless, of course, they can’t get things figured out heading into this weekend series. The Minnesota Twins have hovered around the .500 mark and have quite the impressive batting order, so this may shape up as a fun series opener on Friday night.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Twins vs. Yankees matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are only 42-46 with run differential of -26, which isn’t exactly the most encouraging result in a weak AL Central. However, there are plenty of things to like about this group heading into tonight. The offense has quietly been one of the 10 best in the MLB this season, clocking in with 4.88 runs per game and a .733 OPS that ranks 11th in the sport. The overall slash line sits at .246/.321/.412 with a .166 ISO that’s risen to sixth in recent days, plus 110 home runs. The bats don’t have any trouble producing, and an 8.7% BB% and a 21.5% K%, are both pretty solid marks. They also get a matchup against a right-hander tonight, bring a slash line of .256/.323/.438 for a .761 OPS in the split. Notably, the Twins rank fifth in OPS and third in ISO against right-handed pitching.
RHP Mike Paredes starts his fifth game tonight after going 0-1 in six appearances during his rookie campaign. He brings a 4.26 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 13 strikeouts across 25.1 IP, allowing second-percentile average exit velocity in the small sample. Behind him is one of the MLB’s worst bullpens, which falls dead last in ERA at 5.37 with a 1.56 WHIP and an 8.4% K-BB%.
New York Yankees
You can write a lot of things about the Yankees this year, but the biggest storyline as of late is that they look legitimately bad right now. Yes, they’re 48-38 with a +87 run differential, but they’ve dropped seven straight outings and have scored more than three runs just once over this span. As things stand, they average 4.85 runs per game on the campaign and have a .740 OPS that ranks sixth in the MLB. The slash line is .236/.319/.421, but that’s plummeted to .179/.238/.304 for an OPS of .542 over the last two weeks. These bats just cannot get anything going. The ISO of .185 does lead the MLB this season, and their 124 homers further emphasize the power potential of the lineup. Even that’s regressed lately though, and it doesn’t help that a 23.7% K% is on the high side even with a 10.5% BB% to balance it out. Against right-handers, they slash .231/.318/.413 for a .731 OPS.
It’s RHP Gerrit Cole for New York today after going 2-3 in his seven starts. The star’s numbers are on the high end given his pedigree with a 4.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but he does have 34 strikeouts in 37.2 IP with still-solid velocity. The Yankees’ bullpen is elite at an ERA of 3.19 that ranks second, plus a 1.20 WHIP and 13.7% K-BB%.
Twins vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -187 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Twins are underdogs with +153 odds to win outright. The total sits at 10 combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Yankees under 5.5 total runs (-120)
Typically, this would be the kind of matchup in which I target the over on the Yankees’ team total. They face an inexperienced starter allowing very solid contact and high exit velocity, plus perhaps the worst bullpen in baseball. Usually that’d spell high scoring, but given the recent form of these bats, it’s hard to believe they entirely break the dry spell tonight. Yes, this is likely a get-right spot in which New York can finally get something going, but even beyond this losing streak, the lineup hasn’t been itself with a .676 OPS over the last 30 days. I expect the Yankees to start shaking off the slump here, but fully returning to form will take more than one night.
