For the New York Liberty, it’s one trophy down, one to go; at least, that’s what the team surely hopes. On Tuesday, the Liberty became the first-ever two-time WNBA Commissioner’s Cup winners, defeating the Las Vegas Aces, 93-85, and Breanna Stewart was named an All-Star starter on Thursday.
New York will now refocus for the home stretch of the season, as tonight’s 7:40 p.m. ET matchup against the Minnesota Lynx is its 21st game of the 44-game regular season schedule. Given both teams’ strong record, it’s also a possible playoff preview.
Franchise star Napheesa Collier (ankle) and Emma Čechová (knee) remain out for Minnesota, with Dorka Juhász (foot) questionable to make her season debut. For the Liberty, Satou Sabally (concussion) will sit.
The Lynx are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 Moneyline), with the total set at 173.5 points. The Liberty are +120 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this marquee showdown and offer a prediction.
Lynx at Liberty Best Bet
Minnesota Lynx -1.5 (-112): Minnesota should be dominant on the interior against a Liberty team that has struggled with rim protection, and the Lynx also have the guard defenders necessary to slow down New York’s perimeter-oriented game.
Lynx at Liberty prediction, pick
Collier is Minnesota’s franchise player, but the Lynx have hardly missed a beat without her this season. Second overall pick Olivia Miles has hit the ground running, being named an All-Star starter alongside teammate Natasha Howard, and Minnesota is 15-4 with the third-best offense, the best defense, and by far the best net rating. It hasn’t lost any game by more than seven points while notching six 20-plus-point wins, and now Collier has returned to practice and could return in the next week. The Liberty haven’t been bad, going 12-8 with the fifth-best mark on both sides of the ball and the third-best net rating overall, but they were in poor form prior to the Commissioner’s Cup final, losing four of their last five games. Like Minnesota, New York has dealt with some injuries, as Sabrina Ionescu has played only eight games and Sabally only 13.
The Lynx should have a small advantage in interior play. So far this season, Minnesota has been relatively aggressive about driving, attempting the sixth-most restricted area tries per game, while the Liberty have tried the fifth-fewest. The Lynx have also been more efficient from floater range. Defensively, too, Minnesota should have an edge; even without Collier, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, the Lynx have allowed the second-lowest percentage at the rim, and New York has given up the third-highest percentage despite rostering Stewart (a seven-time All-Defensive honoree) and four-time honoree Jonquel Jones. The Liberty like to force opponents into floaters, which should work well for Minnesota, which has been the league’s second-most efficient team on such shots.
The rebounding battle will be key. Both of these teams have been tenacious on the glass, with New York recording the league’s second-highest rebounding percentage and the Lynx the third-highest. It should be a battle of strength against strength, as Minnesota has been the second-best offensive rebounding team and the Liberty the third-best defensive rebounding team. Protecting the ball will also be critical; while the teams are relatively even in most aspects of the transition game, the Lynx have forced the most points off of turnovers and New York the fewest. The Liberty play a more physical game, so they might have a chance if they can get Howard into foul trouble. Howard ranks third in fouls, and Minnesota has been 18.1 points per 100 possessions worse with her off the court.
New York is far more reliant on its shooting than the Lynx are. This season, the Liberty have attempted the second-most threes per game and hit them at the fifth-highest rate despite Stewart’s jumper abandoning her after her 30th birthday, as four of the five players averaging at least four three-pointers per game have made them at at least a 38.5% clip (Ionescu is the exception). Meanwhile, Minnesota has attempted the third-fewest triples, though it has made its shots at the league’s highest clip, and its primary shooter, Kayla McBride, is arguably due for improvement. Defensively, both teams have given up plenty of perimeter looks, but the Lynx have limited opponents to a slightly lower percentage, and their perimeter players have combined for far more defensive win shares than New York’s.
This is a contest between two teams with relatively contrasting styles of play, but based on those styles, Minnesota is a far more dangerous matchup for the Liberty than they are to the Lynx. Minnesota has the defenders necessary to neutralize New York’s perimeter threats, especially since Sabally — who averages 4.4 free throw attempts per game for her career — isn’t active to play physically against Howard and Miles and draw fouls. The Liberty, meanwhile, haven’t done a good enough job protecting the rim despite Jones’ and Stewart’s pedigree, and I expect the Lynx to take full advantage.
