A National League showdown between potential postseason teams puts a little drama on the schedule. The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the bets teams in baseball and should have the upper hand in this outing, especially with standout hurler Kyle Harrison on the mound. They face the Arizona Diamondbacks and rookie Jose Cabrera in the late window, with first pitch at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Brewers vs. Diamondbacks matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew are 7-3 over their last 10 games as they continue to protect their lead at the top of the NL Central. At 53-32, they have the second-best record in baseball and bring a run differential of +124 into tonight’s matchup. This is an excellent roster on the mound and at the plate, but let’s focus on the latter. Milwaukee produces 5.13 runs per game, fifth most in the MLB, and has a .734 OPS that ranks 10th. That comes via a .254/.338/.396 slash line, which improves to .260/.344/.413 for a .757 OPS against right-handed pitching like they face tonight. The Brewers’ 79 homers won’t impress, nor will a .143 ISO that falls 26th. However, they win with great plate approach thanks to a 10.8% BB% and a 21.1% K%, plus some speed and aggressiveness on the bases.
LHP Kyle Harrison gets the start after going 8-1 in 15 games. He brings a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP into this one, and his 96 strikeouts through 77.0 IP are 13th in the NL. With a 31.15 K%, he’s been truly elite at cutting batters down. The Brewers’ bullpen is also quite good, ranking fifth in ERA at 3.61 with a 1.30 WHIP and 13.9% K-BB%.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs really aren’t that great of a team at 43-43, and a -26 run differential won’t spark much confidence heading into this game. However, they’ve found ways to win and hang around around the .500 mark, and despite going 4-6 over their last 10 games, they’re feisty. Arizona averages 4.27 runs per game with a .238/.308/.386 slash line on the year, good for the 25th-ranked OPS at .694. That may not sound great, but the good news is that the Diamondbacks excel against southpaws like they face tonight with a .271/.331/.442 line for a .773 OPS that sits second in the sport. They also have just 78 homers with a .148 ISO, but that latter marks bumps to .171 and ranks sixth in the MLB against lefties. Plus, they’re second best in K% at 19.4% with an 8.5% BB%.
Rookie RHP Jose Cabrera starts his third game tonight after going 0-1 in his two appearances. He has 10.0 IP on his stat card with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, plus seven strikeouts. The Arizona bullpen is 17th in ERA at 4.23 with a 1.25 WHIP and an 11.7% K-BB%.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -144 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Diamondbacks are underdogs with +119 odds to win outright at home. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs as well.
Best Bet: MIL Brewers -1.5 (+109)
There is an argument against this pick since the D-Backs excel against left-handed pitching, often shelling southpaws with the long ball as well. However, there’s more of an argument for the Brew Crew to still cover the run line given that they’re better in just about every other aspect of the game. Harrison is a fantastic young arm who has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this season, keeping runners off the basepaths for the most part while striking out plenty who face him. He’s not the average lefty that Arizona may hit so well against. The Brewers also get the better of their splits against an inexperienced rookie, have a high-scoring lineup to begin with, and also maintain an edge in the bullpen. They should get the job done with a multi-run win.
