Regardless of what happens from here on out, the 2026 World Cup will always be a success for Cape Verde. The third-smallest nation by population ever to qualify for the World Cup is still searching for its first win at the competition, but finishing second and drawing with both Spain and Uruguay is no small feat.
The Blue Sharks could hardly ask for a more difficult opponent in the Round of 32, as they’ve been drawn for a 6 p.m. ET affair against defending champions Argentina. The winner will go on to face either Australia or Egypt, who played earlier Friday.
The Albiceleste are -650 favorites to win in regular time (-2500 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Cape Verde is +1900 (+1000 to advance). There are +700 odds that the score will be level after 90 minutes.
Below, I’ll break down this potential giant-slaying and provide my favorite bet.
Argentina vs. Cape Verde Best Bet:
- Argentina Win and U2.5 (+185): I can’t see Cape Verde scoring in this one, given how clinical Argentina’s defense has been and how wasteful the Blue Sharks’ offense was against Saudi Arabia, a game they really should’ve won. However, the Blue Sharks’ compact, disciplined defense, is no fluke, and Lionel Scaloni doesn’t push for more than the results he needs (in this case, a 2-0 win).
Argentina vs. Cape Verde prediction, pick
Even though the Blue Sharks’ underdog run has been one of the storylines of the tournament, Argentina had the more objectively impressive group stage, as one of just three teams to take all nine possible points. The Albiceleste won each of their games by multiple goals, and with the brief exception of some second-half momentum by Austria in their second group stage match, none of their results ever looked particularly in doubt. Meanwhile, Cape Verde was constantly hanging on, withstanding late chance after late chance against La Roja and the Celeste, and although Saudi Arabia never seriously threatened Vozinha, the Blue Sharks’ inability to capitalize on their chances made the final whistle in that draw feel more like relief than revelation. Still, three points and a zero goal differential — which would’ve meant elimination had Cape Verde finished third — is a solid effort, and Bubista clearly has an effective giant-slaying formula.
Argentina well might be the giant of all giants, as a clear favorite alongside Spain and France. The Albiceleste’s squad contains many of the same players that helped them win the 2022 World Cup, including Lionel Messi, whose six goals in the group stage have him in contention for this tournament’s Golden Boot and vaulted him into the all-time historical lead. Messi’s singular brilliance overshadows how talented the rest of the roster is; Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez could be the best striker duo in the world. Together, Argentina’s attack has produced the 12th-most expected goals per match and the second-highest conversion rate, and it has been among the best distributional teams in the tournament. It hasn’t been great at penetrating the box, but that hardly matters given how brilliant Messi has been at scoring from distance. Additionally, the Albiceleste’s defense has held steady; they’ve conceded just one goal from two shots on target and allowed the second-fewest expected goals overall. They’ve also been extremely good at defending set pieces, and they rank second in tackles despite controlling the majority of possession. Argentina hasn’t been great at aerial duels and hasn’t forced a ton of high turnovers, but it doesn’t make many mistakes, and it has Emi Martínez, arguably the world’s best goalkeeper, between the sticks.
Few fans would’ve heard of any of the Blue Sharks prior to the tournament, but several have seen a massive rise in global stature since the start of the tournament. Goalkeeper Vozinha has been the biggest riser, as the 40-year-old has become the goalkeeper with the fourth-most Instagram followers, but Kevin Pina, who scored Cape Verde’s first-ever World Cup goal with a free kick screamer against Uruguay, has made a name for himself as well. To be fair, the moment of brilliance was one of the Blue Sharks’ few on offense, as they managed the sixth-fewest expected goals per match of any team to qualify for the knockout stages and the third-fewest touches in the box of that group. Additionally, Cape Verde had among the lowest pass completion percentages, both overall and in the final third, of any team to advance. The Blue Sharks made up for their attacking impotence with solid defending, as while they allowed the second-most expected goals per match of any team to advance, they gave up just four shots on target per match and forced opponents to attempt 58.82% of their shots from outside the box. Additionally, Cape Verde was solid against set pieces, averaged the most clearances and interceptions, and ranked near the top of the leaderboard in ground-duel win rate, blocks, and recoveries per match. It rarely made mistakes or committed fouls, and Vozinha ranked eighth in goals prevented, well ahead of even Martínez.
If the Blue Sharks want to advance, they’ll need to play out a 0-0 draw and hope to win on penalties, because it’s unlikely that they have the clinical finishing necessary to score against Martínez. Their prior goals came from a free kick and after a Fernando Muslera mistake; the Albiceleste have been among the best teams against set pieces, and Martínez is one of the world’s least error-prone keepers. Argentina is a bad matchup, since its clinical passing should limit Cape Verde’s opportunities to start counter-attacks, and Messi’s dribbling and long shooting abilities should allow him to put one past Vozinha even through a compact defense. Additionally, while the Albiceleste have been good from set pieces, they’re not reliant on them, so the Blue Sharks’ discipline might not hurt Argentina’s attack that much. It’ll take a while for the Albiceleste to figure out a way through, but a 2-0 result sounds about right.
Best Bet: Argentina Win and U2.5 (+185)
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