I won’t ever lie to you, loyal reader. This isn’t the sexiest MLB DFS slate in the world.
It’s only six games, the starting pitching isn’t going to blow you away, and it all gets started at 6:40 p.m. ET in Cleveland. That’s about as dull as sentences get, right?
In any case, here’s who you should be building your lineups around this evening on the diamond.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Value
Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, $7,500 – Let’s not beat around the bush. May was ambushed in his last outing, surrendering six hits and six earned runs in just two innings against the Royals. That’s not the result you want to see from a fantasy asset. However, even with that blemish on the game log, May’s pitched to a sterling 3.18 ERA and 3.03 FIP across his past 13 starts. That’s a span of 76.1 innings where May has struck out 23.2% of the batters he’s faced and allowed only 1.05 opposing baserunners per frame. May had also thrown a combined 15 scoreless innings in his two appearances prior to taking the mound at Kauffman Stadium, so I’m willing to call that rough one a blip on the radar. Thursday is a good matchup, too. The Braves have been struggling for awhile now, sitting dead-last in batting average (.212), ISO (.117) and wRC+ (65) over the past 30 days.
INFIELD
Stud
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $5,800 – Before I make this all about Randy Vasquez ($6,300), just a quick reminder that Freeman is still quite good. In fact, Freeman’s .393 expected wOBA is sitting in the 96th percentile of the league. Alright. Vasquez time. The RHP’s gaudy advanced numbers are finally catching up to him, as Vasquez sports a 7.34 ERA and a 7.22 FIP over his past seven outings. In that stretch, LHBs are slashing an eye-popping .358/.416/.691 with a .465 wOBA off of the 27-year-old hurler. Freeman’s always hit Vasquez well, and tonight should be no different.
Value
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,100 – After a brief dip below $4,000, Machado’s salary is back up above the $4K mark so far in July. That said, this feels like a very low price to pay for a bat as hot as the veteran’s. Over his past 20 games, the soon-to-be 34-year-old has finally started to look like himself, slashing .263/.345/.592 with a 153 wRC+ over 87 plate appearances. Machado will now get to face Roki Sasaki ($7,700) for the second time in a week. The former NPB stud sports a 4.88 ERA and a 5.09 FIP for the season as a whole, and he’s been on another downswing in his past three starts, surrendering 13 earned runs over 14.0 innings. Not ideal.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $6,500 – You can’t do it every night, but this is one of those times where you almost have to pay-up for Ohtani. The reigning MVP is coming off a red-hot month of June, where he slashed .333/.435/.656 with a 192 wRC+. Now he gets to face the aforementioned Vasquez? This is a man that ranks in the second percentile of expected opponent batting average (.308), opponent average exit velocity (91.9), and opponent barrel rate (13.3%). He’s bad against everyone. Imagine what Ohtani will do to him.
Value
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, $3,900 – Look, there’s nothing especially redeeming about Simpson’s statistical profile. He ranks in the first percentile of both expected wOBA (.259) and expected slugging (.284), and he’s yet to hit a barrel all season. That said, Simpson has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, and when he gets on base, he can wreck havoc with his 96th percentile sprint speed. He’ll likely be batting in the middle of the Rays’ lineup this evening against Stephen Kolek ($6,800), who allowed nine earned runs in his last outing. Tampa has this slate’s highest implied team total, so Simpson is part of a justified stacking opportunity.
