Sport science has advanced dramatically over the last few decades, and perhaps nowhere has that been more evident than baseball. Throwing the ball faster than 100 miles an hour used to be a near-impenetrable barrier, especially for a starter, and while it’s certainly still rare, some pitchers are making it look commonplace.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski stands alone among those starters; he’s thrown 569 pitches over 100 miles per hour this season, by far the most by any starter in a single season, but his opponent in this afternoon’s 2:10 p.m. ET matchup in Milwaukee, the Cincinnati Reds’ Chase Burns, isn’t exactly lacking for speed either.
Let’s break down this flame-throwing battle with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds at Brewers Best Bets
- Under 7 Runs (-107): There’s hardly a line too low for a matchup between two of baseball’s best starters, and if Misiorowski and Burns combine for at least 12 innings and three or fewer runs, the Brewers’ bullpen is too good to let the total get over 7.
- Jacob Misiorowski 0 Earned Runs (+184): Sure, Misiorowski has given up at least one earned run in each of his last two runs, but before that, he’d had an eight-start, 54.0-inning stretch in which he allowed just one total while walking nine and striking out 80. A shutout against Cincinnati’s ice-cold offense wouldn’t be a surprise.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
Up through the end of May, the NL Central was the only division in which every team was over .500, but the Reds haven’t held up their end of that bargain, going 8-17 since June 2, including defeats in each of the first three games of this series. Over that span, Cincinnati’s offense has really collapsed, posting the fifth-lowest OPS, and it has dropped to seventh in that stat for the season as a whole. Elly De La Cruz missed most of the month with an injury and rookie Sal Stewart has hit a bit of a mid-season malaise, while free agency signing Eugenio Suárez has been one of baseball’s worst starters all season long. The Reds’ pitching has been slightly better, as they rank a solid 13th in ERA over the last 30 days, but three of their five starters have ERA’s north of 5, and they also don’t have a reliever with more than 25 innings pitched and a sub-3 mark. Perhaps regression to the mean was inevitable; Cincinnati’s run differential suggests that it should be three games worse than its actual 39-46 mark.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, started hot and has stayed hot. The Brewers have been jostling with the team that beat them in the National League Championship Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers, for baseball’s best record for most of the season, and they’re 1.5 games behind Los Angeles right now. Milwaukee did go on a three-game losing streak in mid-June, but it was their only stretch of three or more losses in a row since April. The Brewers’ offense had been mediocre for much of the season, but over the last 30 days, it’s been baseball’s third-best, as Brice Turang is a shoo-in All-Star and Jackson Chourio has had a 1.014 OPS since the start of June. Milwaukee has also had a top-10 pitching staff over that span; despite one rough start, Kyle Harrison has been a reliable No. 2 to Misiorowski, and Brandon Woodruff is back from injury and in ridiculous form. The Brewers’ bullpen, which features MLB wins leader Aaron Ashby, closer Trevor Megill (who hasn’t given up a run since June 5), and the mercurial but talented Abner Uribe, is also one of baseball’s best units. Milwaukee is a proper contender in top form.
Burns, a Cy Young Award candidate in his own right, would have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup in just about any other game. This season, he ranks third among all NL pitchers in WAR, sporting a 2.36 ERA in 16 starts, and though he gave up five runs in six innings in his most recent start, it was still just the second time all season in which he’s allowed more than two earned runs. Burns also ranks in the NL’s top 10 in strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Advanced stats back up his elite surface-level resume: he ranks in the 87th percentile in expected ERA and in the top decile in fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, which could definitely pose a challenge to a Brewers team with excellent bat-to-ball skills and a patient plate approach. Burns’ only issue is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard; he has just a 39th-percentile barrel rate and a 51st-percentile average exit velocity, and while Milwaukee still ranks eighth-to-last in barrel rate, it has hit the 10th-most homers over the last 30 days. The Brewers could also benefit from his tendency to give up fly balls, given that their grounder rate leads the league. I still expect an effective outing from Burns, but I’m less confident about the Reds’ relievers’ ability to shut down Milwaukee once he exits the game.
Misiorowski, though, is Misiorowski. Brilliance is simply inevitable from him, and in an eight-start stretch from May 1 to June 12, he gave up a total of 19 hits and one earned run in 54.1 innings while walking nine and striking out 80, quite possibly the best stretch from a starter in MLB history. Even after a comparatively rough outing (two earned runs in six innings), Misiorowski leads all of baseball in ERA, strikeouts, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, home runs per nine innings, hits per nine innings, and strikeouts per nine innings. He genuinely has no weaknesses, ranking in the 70th percentile or better in every single Statcast category and leading the league in pitching run value, fastball run value, fastball velocity, and extension. More than any team, Cincinnati is well-suited to take advantages of his relative soft spots, since it sports low chase and ground ball rates and walks frequently, but I still expect at least six innings and one or fewer earned runs. As if he needed any more help, the splits are also in his favor, as he’s been better at home and the Reds worse both on the road and against right-handed pitchers.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7 (-107)
I’m not sure that there could possibly be a total low enough for a game between Misiorowski and Burns, but because Milwaukee’s weaknesses correspond with Burns’, I think he’ll be relatively effective, and Misiorowski will be stellar regardless of the opponent.
Strong Lean: Jacob Misiorowski 0 Earned Runs (+184)
Misiorowski is so incredible that there isn’t even any value in picking him to give up one earned run, but given that he hasn’t given up an earned run in seven of his last 10 starts and the poor form that Cincinnati’s offense has been in, this represents pretty good value.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- MLB Rain Delay Watch Today (July 2): Weather Outlook for All 9 MLB Games
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies prediction, pick for Thursday 7/2/26
- MLB DFS Picks: Starting Pitcher Rankings for Thursday 7/2/26
- Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning MLB Picks for Thursday 7/2/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
