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2026 Wimbledon Third Round Best Bets: Tommy Paul, Aryna Sabalenka Predictions

2026 Wimbledon Third Round Best Bets: Tommy Paul, Aryna Sabalenka Predictions

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By: Blake Krass

The third major of the tennis season is here! Anything can happen at Wimbledon, and there have already been some big upsets and great matches.

These are my 2026 Wimbledon best bets to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the third round of the tournament.


2026 Wimbledon Best Bets: Friday 7/3

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul: Hurkacz/Paul Over 39.5 Games (-130)

This is an awesome third-round matchup between World No. 25 Tommy Paul and Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz was once the No. 6 player in the world, but had to get serious surgery last summer that caused him to miss half the year, including Wimbledon and the US Open. He made his return earlier this year, but took some time to get his groove back. Hurkacz is starting to find it again, and got a great win over Andrey Rublev at the Terra Wortmann Open prior to coming to Wimbledon. In the first round, he had a tough draw against World No. 12 Casper Ruud, but took him down in straight sets. Hurkacz is hoping to ride this momentum and get his career going again.

Tommy Paul is a consistent performer at these majors. He has never made a major final and has only made one major semi-final, but he has reached three quarter-finals over the past couple of years, including at Wimbledon in 2024. That same year, Paul won the iconic Queen’s Club Championships on grass in the lead-up to Wimbledon. Paul used to be a hardcourt specialist, but has developed on alternative surfaces over the past couple of years. He won that title on grass, and won his first title on clay earlier this year, while also making another final on clay. Paul had another great run at the Queen’s Club Championships this year, making the final and blowing a lead after winning the first set of the final.

Tommy Paul and Hubert Hurkacz should play a great match on Friday. These are two pretty evenly-matched players when both are at their best. Paul has proven himself on grass the past couple of years and should be hungry for more success at Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Hurkacz might finally be getting his game back after a long struggle with injury, surgery and recovery. This match has a great chance to go to five sets and should be a fun watch.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Sabalenka to win 2:0 (-130)

The World No. 1 is still seeking not just her first Wimbledon title, but her first Wimbledon final. This has not been a dominant year for Aryna Sabalenka by any means. She lost the Australian Open final to open the year, but bounced back by winning the Sunshine Double in Miami and Indian Wells. However, Sabalenka did not play great on clay and was bounced from Roland-Garros in the quarter-finals. In her only precursor on grass, she was bounced in the semi-finals in Berlin by Jessica Pegula. Sabalenka is deservedly the best player in the world because of her consistently high level, but she continues to struggle at the top level on grass and clay.

Jelena Ostapenko has dropped to No. 31 in the world and has not played anywhere near her best since the start of 2025. Over her past seven major starts prior to this tournament, she never made it past the third round and was bounced in the first round three times, including at Wimbledon in 2025. Ostapenko is an excellent doubles player and reached the final in doubles here at Wimbledon last year. It seems like that might be her primary focus at the moment, as she has a real chance to compete for titles in doubles. That makes her hard to trust against a player as dominant as Sabalenka.

While it is hard to trust Sabalenka in big finals and semi-finals on grass, it’s easy to trust her in this match. She is on a completely different level than Ostapenko over the past 18 months. As long as Sabalenka keeps a cool head, she should handle business in two sets here.


2026 Wimbledon Best Bets: Saturday 7/4

Emma Navarro vs. Marta Kostyuk: Navarro ML (+127)

This is a great third-round matchup between the 13th-ranked and 26th-ranked players in the world. Marta Kostyuk had an incredible clay season, which propelled her career to new heights. She went on a remarkable run, winning back-to-back tournaments at the Open de Rouen and the Madrid Open. She carried that momentum into Roland-Garros, where she made it all the way to the semi-finals. However, Kostyuk did not play between Roland-Garros and Wimbledon due to a couple of different nagging injuries. She has taken care of business in the first two rounds, but only time will tell if she is fit enough to make another deep run at a Grand Slam.

Emma Navarro has found some good form on grass this summer, making the final at the Nottingham Open and upsetting Iga Swiatek to make the quarter-finals at the Bad Homburg Open. Navarro has found success at Wimbledon the past couple of years, making the quarter-finals in 2024 and the fourth round in 2025. On the other side, Marta Kostyuk has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon. Navarro is the superior grass player, and while Kostyuk has had a better 2026 overall, Navarro is my pick to win this match. Emma Navarro has more career success at Wimbledon, and Kostyuk’s incredible run was due to her great ability on clay. Between those factors and the fact that Kostyuk has played no tennis since Roland-Garros, I’ll take Navarro as an underdog in this match.


Blake Krass has contributed to DraftKings since 2024, and is a content creator with a specialty in sports betting. Blake primarily focuses on college football and NFL coverage but will also be covering college basketball, the NBA, MLB and more. Prior to arriving at DK, Blake was a sports betting writer for The Action Network.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.