On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals square off for leg two of a three-game series between potential postseason teams. For the Braves, stopping a three-game losing streak and trying to find their form amidst a rough patch is the focus; for the Cardinals, they’re playing with house money and are looking to steal another game against a contender. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Cardinals vs. Braves matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Braves prediction, preview
St. Louis Cardinals
It’s been a heck of a season for the Redbirds, who have defied expectations and are still above the .500 mark at third in the NL Central. They’re 44-38, and while they went just 13-12 in June, hovering around an even record is about all this young club can ask for. The run differential on the year sits at -6 due to some issues with pitching stability, but there’s no denying this productive offense. Their 4.48 runs per game are around the MLB average and a .716 OPS hovers at 16th in the sport as well, slashing .246/.323/.393 in the process. The Cardinals excel at limiting strikeouts with a 20.2% K% that comes in at fourth best, and an 8.7% BB% is respectable as well. Power isn’t a strong suit for St. Louis with a .147 ISO, but the club does have 91 homers on the campaign. Tonight, they face a left-hander after slashing .245/.325/.379 for a .704 OPS, the lesser of their splits.
RHP Michael McGreevy starts after going 3-6 thus far in 16 games. He brings a low 3.12 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to this outing but lacks much in the way of strikeouts with 57 in 89.1 IP. The Cardinals’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.37 that ranks 20th, a 1.39 WHIP and a very low 9.4% K-BB%.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves looked like a World Series contender through the early stages of the campaign, and they likely still are. However, a 9-14 record in June has them at 49-34 on the year, with the vast majority of those losses coming after Ronald Acuna Jr. hit the IL. They’ve dropped to 4.73 runs per game, and since June 9 when he last played, they’re dead last in scoring with just 49 runs across 17 contests, with a .577 OPS that also sits at the bottom of the MLB. Granted, Atlanta is still 15th in the same stat on the year at .717 with a .247/.311/.406 slash line, but the lineup has cratered to that mark over the last month. The ISO sits 15th at .160 but they have 103 home runs. While a 21.2% K% is eighth lowest, a 7.9% BB% is also on the low side as well. For a bit of consolation, they’re on the positive side of the splits with a .250/.314/.410 line and .723 OPS against right-handers.
Veteran LHP Reynaldo Lopez starts for Atlanta with a 3-1 record in 19 games (six starts). He brings a 3.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in his 46.2 IP. The Atlanta bullpen remains elite with a 2.76 ERA that paces the MLB, plus a 1.09 WHIP and 16.0% K-BB%.
Cardinals vs. Braves pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as -136 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Cardinals are road underdogs with +113 odds to win outright. The total sits at nine combined runs this evening.
Best Bet: STL Cardinals ML (+113)
One can argue that McGreevy is really overperforming his underlying numbers this year. In fact, you’d be right to assume so given a 5.59 xERA and .294 xBA. However, tonight doesn’t look like the night he comes crashing back to earth. The Braves’ offense has been torrid as of late, and as mentioned in the above section, their OPS since Acuna Jr. departed the lineup is below .600. Looking a little further into it, they’re also dead last in ISO over the same span at .103 and wRC+ at 59. Those are some pretty horrific marks for a team that’s supposed to be a top contender. In such a cold stretch, the three-game losing streak should continue for the moment against a starting pitcher who has produced nicely and an offense that does the same.
