Chicagoland Speedway returns to the Cup Series schedule after a six-year absence. Nobody has raced this exact package on this track before. That uncertainty is exactly where the value lives this week.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the eero 400
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin (+320)
The return of an intermediate track to the circuit should be welcomed after two West Coast road races. The return of Chicagoland after a six-year absence from the schedule may not be as welcomed. The last time the NASCAR Cup Series turned laps at this worn-out 1.5-mile intermediate track was 2019. That was during the failed low-horsepower, high-downforce racing package. The previous race was in the 2018 package — high-horsepower, low-downforce.
There’s a lot of uncertainty headed into this Sunday’s race. Chicago may look like another cookie-cutter intermediate track, but it’s anything but. With all of the unknowns, it’s best to lean on the known. Hamlin is a known commodity. He posted the second-fastest cPOMS at Las Vegas (Continuously graded POMS — a driver’s speed compared to the fastest driver on that lap for every lap). Hamlin replicated that speed at Kansas (second) and Charlotte (third).
Race Winner — Tyler Reddick (+550)
Rumors persist. The conspiracy theory grows. Is Toyota cheating? It doesn’t matter. All that matters is that the JGR and 23XI Racing Toyotas are fast. Reddick’s median cPOMS at the intermediate tracks (low and high horsepower) is second. Since the season-opening intermediate track race in Las Vegas, Reddick has registered a top-5 cPOMS in every race.
Race Winner — Kyle Larson (+600)
A large number of drivers have never driven a Cup Series stock car at Chicago. None of the drivers have driven a car with this racing package. Experience might be irrelevant. It might come down to which team can nail the setup. It might come down to driver skill rather than experience.
The lack of horsepower could have an interesting effect. Chicago has a high groove near the wall, but historically, it hasn’t been as fast as the high grooves at Darlington or Homestead. However, the 2026 Gen-7 racing package opens the door to the rim-riding style that favors Yung Money. While traditional drivers struggle with limited throttle on exit, Larson barely lifts and blows by them, taking the long way around.
