Mexico entered the World Cup with some questions, but it took care of business in Group A, becoming the first team to clinch a spot in the knockout round after their second group stage game. As a result, it’ll get to play up to two more games on home soil. Given the raucous home fans that have filled Estadio Azteca all tournament long and the capital’s high elevation, that advantage could be significant.
At 9 p.m. ET, El Tri will play perhaps the most highly-anticipated knockout match in its history. They’ll play another high-altitude side in Ecuador, which just managed to sneak out of Group E with a late winner against Germany, which won the group ahead of Ivory Coast. The winner will face either England or DR Congo in Mexico City in the Round of 16.
Mexico is a +125 favorite to win in regular time (-185 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and La Tricolor are +220 (+145 to advance). There are +400 that the score will be level after 90 minutes.
Below, I’ll break down the evening’s final game and provide my favorite bet.
Mexico vs. Ecuador Best Bet:
- Mexico Moneyline (+125): Mexico’s home-field advantage is significant, and its defense has been extremely stingy. Ecuador looked extremely unimpressive in the first two games of the group stage, and while La Tricolor managed to advance after beating Germany, Die Nationalelf had nothing to play for.
Mexico vs. Ecuador prediction, pick
El Tri looked like the far more convincing side in the group stage. Despite already clinching Group A after picking up a pair of narrow wins over South Africa and South Korea, Mexico throttled Czechia with a heavily rotated side in the group stage finale, and legend Guillermo Ochoa played the final game of his legendary career. Ecuador, meanwhile, was widely-backed as a potential dark horse, but it disappointed massively in the opening two matches, giving up a late winner to the Ivory Coast and failing to convert on its chances against debutants Curaçao to put itself in precarious position. La Tricolor managed a 2-1 stunner over Germany, tapping home a winner in the 77th minute to advance, but Die Nationalelf didn’t have much to play for. Germany did start a strong side, but it’s hard to look too much into a performance against a team that had already secured the group regardless of the result.
Many of El Tri’s stars were relatively unknown to casual fans before this tournament, as only six play in one of Europe’s top five leagues and 12 play domestically in Liga MX, but the hosts have certainly put on a convincing display so far this tournament. Mexico has especially been brilliant in the defense, as it allowed the third-fewest expected goals per match during the group stage. El Tri also allowed just nine shots in the box per match, and they won a small minority of their ground duels and a majority of their aerial duels while turning their high turnovers into shots at the fifth-highest rate. Mexico was comparatively less impressive in the attack, managing just 1.24 expected goals per match, but it played pretty passively for large portions of the match against Bafana Bafana and sat star striker Raúl Jiménez against Czechia, so it has the potential to turn it on when it needs to. El Tri played rather cleanly, making among the fewest errors leading to a shot, and they finished well, ranking 10th in goals minus expected goals per match. They like to control the pace of the match, playing at the lowest average speed, which could work well against an Ecuador team that’s happy to sit back and defend.
La Tricolor have also been defense-oriented to an even greater degree than Mexico. Though they were worse on paper than El Tri, conceding 0.84 expected goals per match, just half of opponents’ 36 shots came inside the box. They also ranked second in tackles, 10th in interceptions, and fourth in recoveries per match. Though Ecuador won a minority of both its ground and aerial duels overall, its personnel is certainly strong, as newly-elevated captain Moisés Caicedo is arguably the Premier League’s best defensive midfielder and center-back Willian Pacho has just won the Champions League back-to-back with Paris Saint-Germain. Its high press has also generated the fifth-most high turnovers overall, one of which led to the equalizing goal against Die Nationalelf. However, La Tricolor were extremely disappointing in the attack, as though they produced a solid 1.71 expected goals per match, they were the second-worst finishing team in the competition, and 36-year-old Enner Valencia simply isn’t good enough anymore to be their main striker. They distributed the ball well and didn’t make a ton of mistakes, but they just weren’t able to finish, and with the possible exception of Kevin Rodríguez, they don’t have the personnel to become much more efficient. Ecuador can play out low-scoring results, but it required an outside-the-box banger from a player who didn’t net once for Sunderland this season and a fortuitous deflection to Gonzalo Plata just to score.
This match should be a low-scoring one decided on limited opportunities, and I like Mexico’s front three of Jiménez, Roberto Alvarado, and Julián Quiñones more than I do Valencia and Plata. El Tri have attempted fewer shots overall than La Tricolor have, but they didn’t have the chance to pad their stats against a true minnow like Curaçao, and Ecuador got out-shot against both Ivory Coast and Germany, managing a combined four shots on target against the two top teams. It’s just hard to bet against a team that has not allowed neither a goal nor many touches in the box through three matches, and La Tricolor’s attack isn’t significantly more impressive than the South Korea team that Mexico held scoreless. Its home-field advantage might not be quite as significant against Ecuador as against most opposition, given that Sebastián Beccacece’s men are used to playing in high-altitude Quito, but the support of the home crowd should be just enough for El Tri to find a goal late on.
Best Bet: Mexico Moneyline (+125)
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