So far this World Cup, the 2018 champions and 2022 runners-up France have fairly comfortably looked like the competition’s best team, winning each of its group stage matches by at least two goals. But now it’s do-or-die time; Les Bleus cannot afford to slip up, as defeat at this stage means elimination.
France’s 2026 knockout stage will begin with a 5 p.m. ET battle against Sweden, which advanced as a best third-place side after playing out a 1-1 draw with Japan on the final day of Group E action. The match will be played in New York/New Jersey, and the winner will go on to face Germany, which advanced past Paraguay on Monday.
Les Bleus are -390 favorites to win in regular time (-1000 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Blågult are +1000 (+550 to advance). There are +550 that the score will be level after 90 minutes.
Below, I’ll break down this all-European affair and provide my favorite bet.
France vs. Sweden Best Bet:
- France -2.5 Alternate Spread (+185): France has won each of its prior two games by at least two goals, and while Sweden might be better than Norway’s backups, it allowed more goals than any other team to advance out of the group stage. Blågult’s defenders will be challenged massively by Les Bleus, who are as clinical as it gets.
France vs. Sweden prediction, pick
France looked vulnerable for approximately 45 minutes, as Kylian Mbappé got off to a rough start in the opening match against Senegal and the Lions of Teranga controlled much of the ball and played more cleanly. At halftime, Les Bleus turned it on, as Kylian Mbappé put the game away with a brace in the last 30 minutes and Bradley Barcola managed to finish one as a substitute. Their final two group stage games were more of the same, as even a rain delay couldn’t hamper a 3-0 win over Iraq and Ousmane Dembélé had the fastest hat trick since 1954 in a 4-1 win over Norway’s backups. Meanwhile, Sweden was far more inconsistent; Graham Potter’s men opened up the tournament with a 5-1 win over Tunisia that led the Eagles of Carthage to fire their coach, but they lost 5-1 to the Netherlands in the next match and merely drew with Japan. Blågult had their highs and lows, but they’ll need many more of the former if they want to upset France.
Les Bleus’ roster is, with all due respect to England, Argentina, and Spain, unmatched, especially in the attack. It took Dembélé until the second group stage match to nab his first World Cup goal, but he poured it on in dramatic fashion against the Red, White, and Blue, scoring once with his right foot and twice with his left, and the final goal simply seemed inevitable. Mbappé is just three goals behind Lionel Messi for the all-time lead in that category, and he had four goals in the group stage. France produced the 10th-most expected goals per match and scored the most despite struggling on set pieces. Les Bleus have also managed the ninth-most touches in the box and completed their passes at the ninth-highest rate, including the most through balls. Defensively, too, France has been pretty solid, giving up just 0.95 expected goals per match from the fourth-fewest overall shots. Les Bleus have also averaged the most recoveries and an above-average number of tackles while winning a majority of both ground and aerial duels, and their high press has forced the sixth-most high turnovers. France certainly hasn’t been perfect defensively, and left-back Theo Hernández has emerged as the clear weak link, getting beaten for Senegal’s lone goal and conceding a penalty against Norway, but it’s easy for Les Bleus to make up for Hernández’s struggles when they pair him with Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, and Mike Maignan in the back. For his part, Maignan’s numbers don’t look great, but the goals he allowed were more a result of shooters’ brilliance than of his own mistakes.
Sweden has plenty of talent in the attack as well. Potter has decided to play a dual-striker formation to maximize both Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak’s talents, and so far, it’s worked, as Gyökeres has one goal and two assists and Isak one goal and three assists. Brighton midfielder Yasin Ayari has also emerged as a rising star, and Anthony Elanga, who didn’t score at all for Newcastle this season, had a pair of goals. All in all, Blågult managed 0.99 expected goals per match and completed passes at the sixth-lowest rate of any team to advance, but they finished clinically, getting half of their shots on target and registering the third-most goals minus expected goals. Sweden paired its fearsome attack with a hot-and-cold defense; though it allowed just 50% of its opponents’ shots to come in the box, it still conceded the most goals of any team to advance, and it recorded among the fewest tackles, interceptions, blocks, and clearances while winning fewer than half of its ground and aerial duels. Blågult might be able to limit the damage because they have been excellent at playing the offsides trap, but they did give up a goal on the only fast break they allowed.
In some ways, these teams are pretty similar, as both roster talented attackers but have more question marks in the defense. The talent gap on both sides of the ball, though, is palpable; while Les Bleus’ defense is merely bad compared to their attack, Sweden even gave up a goal to Tunisia, which was arguably the most disappointing team in the entire tournament. Blågult might be able to keep it competitive for a while by catching Mbappé offside a few times and by not making too many disastrous errors against their press, but eventually, France’s hustle on defense and precision on offense should lead to a breakthrough. Once the floodgates open for Les Bleus, Kristoffer Nordfeldt, who ranks dead last among qualified goalies in save percentage, is nowhere near talented enough to shut them.
Best Bet: France -2.5 Alternate Spread (+185)
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