While not the most exciting matchup of the evening for fans who love explosive offense, there’s an interesting duel between current division leaders in the American League on Monday. The Texas Rangers pace a weak AL West and are 7-3 over their last 10 outings; the Cleveland Guardians are tied for the top in the AL Central but are fighting just to stay afloat. They square off at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Rangers vs. Guardians matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Texas Rangers
The AL West is a bit of a mess, but the Rangers remain poised to take advantage of it. Despite being 42-42, they’re atop the division standings and have been on a surge lately with seven wins in their last 10 games, including four straight. However, the club still has a run differential of -8 and averages just 4.05 per game as one of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball. They have a .712 OPS on the year that ranks 18th across the MLB, slashing .244/.320/.391. Those numbers drop to a .704 OPS with a .235/.316/.388 slash line against lefties like they face tonight though, a slight downtick in the split. Texas also has 89 homers with a .148 ISO that falls 19th. The club also produces an 0.40 BB/K ratio with an 8.9% BB% and a 22.5% K%.
LHP Tyler Alexander will start for the Rangers tonight with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and 27 strikeouts across 34.1 IP. He has 35 games under his belt with just two starts, both of which he saw just one inning in. The bulk pitcher behind him is uncertain as of now, but the bullpen has a 3.82 ERA that ranks 11th with a 1.26 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians land in similar position with a record that’s only a couple games better than .500 while still competing for the division. At 44-40, they’re tied for the AL Central lead but are 5-5 in their last 10, though they’ve won back-to-back outings. The overall run differential is -8 as the club’s 3.94 runs per game are second-to-last in the entire MLB. The club’s .676 OPS ranks third-to-last with a .228/.312/.264 slash line on the year. Tonight, they face a southpaw after hitting .226/.313/.347 in the split for a .660 OPS as well. That’s uninspiring to say the least, but so are the 75 total homers and a .136 ISO that falls second worst around the sport. If it’s any consolation, Cleveland does have an 0.46 BB/K ratio with a 10.1 BB% that sits near the top of the league along with a 21.8% K%.
It’ll be LHP Parker Messick on the mound tonight with a 7-3 record in 16 starts. He has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 101 strikeouts across 84.1 IP. Those marks are good for fourth, ninth, and ninth in the AL. Cleveland’s bullpen is solid with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, but a 16.4% K-BB% remains one of the MLB’s best.
Rangers vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Guardians as -162 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Rangers are underdogs with +134 odds to win outright. The total sits at 7.5 combined runs this evening.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-106)
Two of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball walk into a bar… have you heard this one before? It’s hard to trust either side to put up high run totals, especially with the Rangers staring down the rough side of their splits against a top lefty while the Guardians are still without top hitters like Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter, who are both quite good against southpaws. With unpredictable offenses and solid bullpens on both sides, this simply doesn’t have the feel of a high-scoring game. I’m comfortable taking the under, even though it’s set quite low.
