The Pirates and Phillies play the first game of their four-game series on Monday, June 29.
Philadelphia is a -112 moneyline favorite, while Pittsburgh is -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under nine runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Pirates vs. Philadelphia game.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Toward the end of May, the Phillies were below .500. Now, they’re 10 games above .500 with a 47-37 record—just three games back from the NL East lead. It’s an impressive streak that includes seven wins in their last nine games. They return home for a four-game set with the Pirates before a nine-game road trip to end the first half.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are sitting at .500 and fourth in the NL Central. The division is extremely tight as six games separate the Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds. The Brewers lead the division by 5.5 games, so that gap is larger. This series marks a seven-game road trip for the Pirates, though they’re not traveling far.
Braxton Ashcraft is starting for Pittsburgh in the series opener on Monday. He has a 3.07 ERA across 96.2 innings in his second MLB season. His first season, primarily as a reliever, was also good, but it lasted just 69.2 innings. He’s surpassed that as a full-time starter in 16 appearances, proving to be a solid sidekick to Paul Skenes in the rotation. His first start of June was messy: six earned runs and nine hits in five innings, but the next three outings were much better. He allowed one earned run twice and two earned runs in another start, totaling four earned across 17.0 innings.
There isn’t as much excitement around Aaron Nola, Philadelphia’s starter. The 33-year-old was once a premier option in the rotation, but now he’s disappointing. He has a 5.58 ERA this year, and has allowed at least two earned runs in nine straight games. Nola will have games like he did vs. the Nationals (two earned runs, three hits, 5.0 innings) and Padres (two earned runs, three hits, 6.0 innings), but he also has games like against the Pirates (six earned runs, six hits, 3.2 innings).
Pirates vs. Phillies Pick, Best Bet
Although the Phillies have been hot, the Pirates’ offense will be too much for Nola to handle. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five for total runs scored, hits, RBI, total bases, batting average, and OPS, and ranks in the top 10 for home runs, walks, and stolen bases.
