Just last year, the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays were both considered contenders for a World Series. Fast-forward several months and just making it into the postseason now seems downright improbable for one of these squads and like a long shot for the other. Yes, both teams have underperformed in 2026, but even a recent skid from the Jays doesn’t have them too far outside the picture for a Wild Card berth. Tonight, they face off in Toronto.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
New York Mets
The 2026 campaign has been forgettable for the Mets, who recently shook things up by firing manager Carlos Mendoza and replacing him with interim Andy Green. At 35-49, they remain 15.0 games back in the NL Central and 9.5 games shy of the Wild Card, so it’s more likely than not they become sellers at the trade deadline. Amid a dismal 2-8 stretch in their last 10 outings, the wins just aren’t coming. New York’s offense has been one of the worst in baseball with just 4.04 runs per game and a .674 OPS on the year that ranks second-to-last, slashing .231/.300/.375 overall. Granted, the bats have performed better lately, moving to a .719 OPS over the last two weeks and sitting at a respectable .720 across the month of June. Still, they face a right-hander tonight, which means the lesser of their splits at a .228 AVG with a .669 OPS. The Mets do have 93 homers, 67 of which have come off a RHP, though a .144 ISO falls 24th. Finally, an 0.36 BB/K ratio is one of the worst in baseball with an 8.1% BB% and 22.3% K%.
The Mets are set to start LHP Sean Manaea, who is 1-2 in 17 games with three starts this season. He has a 4.87 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, bringing plus-K potential with 60 strikeouts in 57.1 IP. His main weakness, though, is a fourth-percentile average fastball velocity of just 90.4 mph. The New York bullpen behind him has a 3.40 ERA that ranks sixth, plus a 1.18 WHIP and a 16.0% K-BB% that ties for third best in baseball. That’s a major boon for tonight’s game.
Toronto Blue Jays
As for the Blue Jays, the start of the season saw them with a World Series hangover after falling short in the postseason. They did pull themselves together for a time and have gotten to 39-45, just 2.5 games shy of the Wild Card, but they remain 10.5 back in the AL East picture. Plus, they’ve now lost six straight contests and are just 3-7 over their last 10 outings. Toronto averages 4.08 runs per game with an OPS of .701 that falls 23rd in the MLB. The full slash line reads .248/.310/.391, with a .143 ISO and 86 home runs on the season. The power may be lacking, but the club is one of the best at avoiding strikeouts with the third-lowest K% at 19.9%. Now, that isn’t made up for by a 7.4% BB% that’s second worst in the sport and an 0.37 BB/K ratio. Tonight’s outing may be tough in particular since the Jays have a .653 OPS against lefties, slashing just .219/.295/.358 in that split with 22 of their homers.
RHP Trey Yesavage starts for Toronto with a 3-3 record across 11 appearances. So far, he holds a 3.56 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 60.2 IP. It’s been a really solid year for the 22-year-old, even if a 12.0% BB% is on the high side. The Blue Jays’ bullpen is also one of the better units in the sport, sitting 10th in ERA at 3.75 with a 1.30 WHIP and 13.3% K-BB%.
Mets vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Blue Jays as -131 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Mets are underdogs with +108 odds to win outright. The total sits at nine combined runs this evening.
Best Bet: Under nine runs (-121)
The under feels like a pretty easy selection for tonight’s contest. For starters, these are two of the lowest-scoring teams in all of baseball with a combined 8.12 runs per game between the pair. This month alone, they’re 22nd and 23rd in total runs scored. Likewise, the pitching matchups set the under up nicely as well. Both teams get the lesser of their RHP/LHP splits, with a .669 OPS vs. RHP for New York and a .653 mark against LHP for Toronto. Plus, both sides hit below .230 in these same splits. Yesavage has been shaky as of late, but he certainly brings upside to the table and has primarily surrendered runs through homers in recent starts. That’s a threat against the Mets, but he should keep the total number of hits down tonight. Meanwhile, Manaea has allowed a total of six earned runs across his three starts. Between the splits and the fact both teams have quality bullpens, there should be fewer runs to go around tonight.
