Now this is a banger matchup. It’s a top-10 matchup in the Round of 32, with Group F winner Netherlands facing Group C runners-up Morocco. There’s a ton of attacking talent, interesting rivalries, and win-or-go-home stakes on the line. What else could you want?
Monday’s match will begin at 9 p.m. ET in Monterrey. The winner will go on to face Canada.
The Oranje are +110 favorites to win in regular time (-180 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Morocco is +280 (+140 to advance). There are +225 odds that the tie will require extra time to decide.
Below, I’ll break down this knockout clash and provide my favorite bet.
Netherlands vs. Morocco Best Bet:
- Netherlands Moneyline (+110): Frankly, the Dutch are better in every facet of the game. Their back line is superior, the central midfield can dominate, and their front line brings a diverse, talented attack to the table. The Netherlands have shown that all-around quality through the group stage, and will be advancing to the Round of 16, while Morocco’s hopes of a deep run will be quashed early.
Netherlands vs. Morocco prediction, pick
It’s been a great run through the group stage for the Netherlands. After a testy 2-2 draw against Japan to open up their group stage campaign, they turned up the offense to the maximum. The Oranje blew out Sweden 5-1 in the second game, then defeated Tunisia 3-1 to secure their spot at the top of the group. Set pieces have been awfully lethal for Ronald Koeman’s squad, with the Dutch nabbing three goals off designed plays.
Of course, the attack draws all of the headlines, and guys like Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey deserve their plaudits. But it’s the defense that draws the eyes for me. Virgil van Dijk and Jan Paul van Hecke have been an elite center back duo, with each contributing a goal off set pieces. Denzel Dumfries and Nathan Aké have been excellent on the wings, with Dumfries regularly activating in attack to create overloads. Though the group has yet to keep a clean sheet, they’re excellent at winning duels and picking up crucial clearances. Their central midfield, headlined by Frenkie de Jong, has frankly been a bit of a disappointment; to beat Morroco, that central group has to step up their possession game and control the middle third of the pitch.
Though Morocco ended up with seven points in Group C, it was far from a dominant showing. An opening match draw against Brazil was a good result as two top-10 teams duked it out. But they just squeaked by against Scotland, a matchup that shouldn’t have been close, before nearly embarrassing themselves against Haiti. The already-eliminated Haitian side went up twice in the first half, and took a 2-2 draw into halftime. Morocco scored twice in the second half to secure their advancement, but for a team with contention hopes, they’ll be concerned that they haven’t put together an end-to-end win.
Many of Morocco’s chief flaws were realized in the group stage. The attack wasn’t well-balanced, with only four players scoring in the group stage, and half of their goals coming from Ismael Saibari. Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz have been involved as usual, but it’s largely been predictable for the Moroccans. The defense needs to be better as well; Chadi Riad and Issa Diop haven’t covered the field well enough with Hakimi roaming all over the pitch from his right back spot, and it’s getting them in trouble.
To me, this contest comes down to the Moroccan back line. The Netherlands piled up 10 goals in group stage play, and are certainly going to take some stopping. Morocco needs Hakimi to float around the field in order to get the most out of their attack, but can they trust Diop and Riad to hold up on counterattacks? Gakpo playing behind the space Hakimi occupies can be awfully dangerous. On the other side of the pitch, they need special moments from Brahim Diaz to connect the field and feed their quality strikers. I’m not too convinced that Morocco can find those moments, or contain this Oranje attack. It’s going to be the Dutch moving on to the Round of 16, and the Moroccans scheduling an early flight home.
Best Bet: Netherlands Moneyline (+110)
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