Against all odds, the Houston Astros have gotten hot to reinsert themselves into the Wild Card discussion, if not the AL West race. Tonight, they host the Minnesota Twins, who are a few games below .500 themselves. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Twins vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Astros prediction, preview
Minnesota Twins
We’ve long since established how poor the AL is this season, which is thoroughly demonstrated by this 40-45 Twins squad sitting just 2.0 games shy of the early Wild Card picture. They have a run differential of -30 and have some quality bats, but the pitching staff needs serious improvement. With an average of 4.85 runs per game, Minnesota sits seventh in scoring and ninth in OPS with a .734 mark. The club slashes .247/.322/.412 with a .165 ISO that ranks sixth and 104 homers, so power is no problem. With an 8.6% BB% and a 21.4% K%, the plate approach is also perfectly respectable. However, they’ll be glad to get a matchup against a right-hander tonight after slashing .257/.322/.437 for a .759 OPS in the split, which comes in at third best among all MLB clubs.
RHP Zebby Matthews gets the start with a 3-5 record in eight games this year. He brings a 4.56 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 49.1 IP. Behind him is one of the MLB’s worst bullpens, ranking dead last in ERA at 5.45 with a 1.57 WHIP and an 8.4% K-BB%.
Houston Astros
In the opposite dugout are the Astros, who are 7-3 over their last 10 outings and have now won each of their last five series. While still below .500 at 42-44, they’re just one game shy of the AL West lead and remain half a game back of a possible postseason spot. Since June 1, the club actually has a .600 winning percentage that ties for fourth best in baseball. Houston has a run differential of -42 but averages 4.50 runs per game with a .726 OPS that ranks 13th around the MLB. That comes on a .242/.316/.410 slash line, also including a .168 ISO that sits fifth and 112 home runs. The Astros also bring an 8.8% BB% with a 21.6% K%. Against right-handers like they face tonight as well, the slash line reads .243/.319/.409 for a .728 OPS that ranks 12th.
For Houston, RHP Peter Lambert starts tonight with a 6-4 record. He’s produced a 3.28 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 64 strikeouts across his 68.2 IP. The bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.42 this year, but jumps to fourth in the MLB at 2.66 this month with a 1.13 WHIP and 16.5% K-BB%.
Twins vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -136 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Twins are underdogs with +113 odds to win outright. The total sits at nine combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+153)
Lambert has been something of a revelation for Houston this year after spending last season in the minors and amassing a 5.00 ERA or worse in both 2023 and 2024. He’s been very solid for the most part and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, recording a win in three of those. The Astros’ bullpen has also been similarly surprising ever since a terrible start to 2026. Since May 11, their 2.71 ERA ranks second in the MLB. There could be some scoring tonight from both sides of the matchup, but I like the home side to cover the run line thanks to a significant advantage in the later stages once the starters exit.
