The 2026 World Cup has been a tremendous one for African teams. Of the continent’s 10 representatives, nine made the Round of 32, the highest proportion of any confederation. There have never been multiple quarterfinalists from Africa, but there’s a reasonable chance that that will change this tournament.
One of the most impressive African teams so far has been Ivory Coast, which will begin its first-ever knockout stage campaign with a 1 p.m. ET date with Norway on Tuesday. The Elephants finished second in Group E behind Germany, and the Red, White, and Blue were runners-up to France.
Norway is a +105 favorite to win in regular time (-180 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Ivory Coast is +265 (+185 to advance). There are +255 odds that the tie will require extra time to decide.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of widely-tabbed dark horses and provide my favorite bet.
Ivory Coast vs. Norway Best Bet:
- Ivory Coast to Advance (+140): Erling Haaland will be the best player on the pitch, but the Ivory Coast is the better team. The Elephants have been more clinical with their passing and much more stout defensively, and their elite wingers will prove problematic for Norway’s shaky defense. If it comes down to a penalty shootout, I far prefer Yahia Fofana to Ørjan Nyland.
Ivory Coast vs. Norway prediction, pick
There were some questions surrounding both teams at the start of the tournament. It wasn’t clear if the Elephants had any finishers clinical enough to beat Ecuador, much less put up a fight against Die Nationalelf, and the Red, White, and Blue weren’t a guarantee to carry over their tremendous qualifier form into the tournament. Each team’s first game answered any skepticism: Ivory Coast dominated the second half against La Tricolor to find a 1-0 win, and Erling Haaland opened his World Cup account with a brace to defeat Iraq convincingly. In each team’s second match, the Elephants led Germany late until a series of Deniz Undav heroics sealed the group, and Norway managed a tightly-fought 3-2 win over Senegal. Neither team’s final match revealed much: Ivory Coast played pretty passively in a 2-0 win over Curaçao, and the Red, White, and Blue rotated 10 of their 11 starters in a 4-1 throttling at the hands of France, though they actually produced more expected goals’ worth of chances. Each team should feel confident about its ability to win on Tuesday.
The Elephants’ wingers headline their squad. 19-year-old Yan Diomandé, who is expected to sign for Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool later this summer, has been among the breakout stars of the World Cup, contributing an assist in the match against Germany and making contributions on both sides of the ball. Manchester United’s Amad Diallo scored the winner against Ecuador, and Nicolas Pépé had a brace against the Blue Wave. All in all, Ivory Coast had a slightly below-average attack, averaging the 15th-fewest expected goals per game among the 32 teams to qualify for the knockouts, and its 29.0% shot-on-target percentage could prove problematic. However, the Elephants made up for it with a strong defense, conceding just 1.14 expected goals per match and the fifth-lowest shot-in-box percentage in the competition. They also rank fourth in both interceptions and recoveries per match while winning a majority of both their ground and aerial duels, and they’ve been among the best at turning their high turnovers into shots while committing the third-fewest fouls. Yahia Fofana hasn’t been called upon frequently, but he’s made eight saves from 10 chances, demonstrating improvement from his effort in the Ivory Coast’s Africa Cup of Nations triumph in 2023.
Norway undoubtedly has the stronger attack. Haaland is more talented than any player on the Elephants’ roster, and Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth, and Antonio Nusa comprise a pretty capable supporting cast as well. Despite sitting most of their starters against Les Bleus, they produced the sixth-most expected goals per match, got half of their shots on target, and scored the fourth-most goals. The Red, White, and Blue weren’t very clinical with their passing, especially in the final third, and they didn’t get many touches in the box, but they made savvy shot decisions, taking the highest-quality shots on average. Defensively, Norway wasn’t as sound; it allowed 0.2 more expected goals per match on a higher shot-in-box percentage than Ivory Coast while winning its ground duels at the third-lowest rate and forcing high turnovers ending in a shot at merely a median clip. The Red, White, and Blue were also less disciplined than the Elephants, and I simply don’t trust Ørjan Nyland, who ranked third-to-last in save percentage among 49 qualified goalies in the group stage.
Haaland is good enough to single-handedly win this game for Norway, but the longer the Ivory Coast can keep the score level, the more likely it is to prevail. The Red, White, and Blue’s occasional tendency to foul shouldn’t matter too much against the Elephants, given that the West Africans have been the least effective team from set pieces, but their sloppy passing in the final third (which was the eighth-worst of any team to qualify) could allow the Ivory Coast to step into passing lanes and start a counter. Additionally, I’m concerned about Norway’s depth and its defense’s ability to contain Diomandé’s and Diallo’s dribbling. If the Elephants can take it through extra time level, Fofana is far more trustworthy than Nyland in a penalty shootout. The Red, White, and Blue’s defensive numbers might have been influenced by their difficult group, but so far, the Ivory Coast has been the better overall team. I’ve been all-in on the Elephants all tournament, and they haven’t given me any reason to believe otherwise.
Best Bet: Ivory Coast to Advance (+140)
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