Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top three NRFI plays for Monday:
- Tigers at Yankees NRFI (-125): The Tigers struggle to hit lefties like Ryan Weathers, and Casey Mize has a 14-game streak of not allowing a run in the first inning coming into this AL showdown in the Bronx.
- Rangers at Guardians NRFI (-130): In another AL matchup, Parker Messick has a 16-game NRFI streak as he faces Tyler Alexander, who has not allowed a first-inning run in his two starts this season.
- Reds at Brewers NRFI (-110): In the NL Central, Robert Gasser takes on Nick Lodolo. Gasser has a 77% career NRFI, and Lodolo has hit NRFI in four straight and eight of his last 10.
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support these three NRFI plays for Monday.
Tigers at Yankees NRFI (-125)
The Tigers and Yankees played last week in the Motor City and will meet this week in the Bronx. In the series opener, Casey Mize gets the ball for the road team, while the Yankees counter with lefty Ryan Weathers.
Weathers has allowed a first-inning run in five of his 15 starts this year, but not in either of his last two outings. The Tigers have the fourth-highest NRFI rate in the MLB this season, and they have the third-worst batting average in the majors against lefties, hitting only .220 as a team against southpaws.
On the other side, Mize comes into this start with a 14-game NRFI streak. He has not allowed a run in any of his 11 starts this season, including his start last Tuesday against New York. He took the loss in that game, giving up four runs overall, but none in the first inning. Mize will look to keep his streak going, and the Yankees’ lineup struggled in Boston over the weekend, so he’ll look to continue that trend as well in Game 1 of this set at Yankee Stadium.
Rangers at Guardians NRFI (-130)
The Rangers and Guardians meet in Cleveland at 7:10 p.m. ET, and it’ll be Parker Messick against Tyler Alexander. The Guardians have the third-highest NRFI rate of all teams this year, while the Rangers actually have the lowest NRFI rate in the MLB. It’s usually because they’re giving up runs in the first inning, though, not scoring them.
The Guardians’ side of this matchup seems pretty secure since Messick has been excellent this season across the board. After allowing a run in the first inning of four of his seven starts last season, he has not allowed a run in the first inning in any of his 16 starts this season. Messick’s 16-game NRFI streak is the longest active streak of any pitcher on the slate. The Rangers’ NFRI hit rate is low overall, but they only score in 31.3% of first innings, which is right at league average.
The Guardians only score in 25.3% of their first innings, which is why they’ve been a great option to attack for NRFI this season. Tyler Alexander has been very effective out of the bullpen for the Rangers lately, and he earned saves on back-to-back days. He’s still listed as Monday’s opener ,and if he makes the start, he will be the first pitcher since saves became an official statistic in 1969 to record saves in two straight games and then start the next contest. Let’s see some history and pick up an NRFI along the way!
Reds at Brewers NRFI (-110)
The Reds and the Brew Crew meet in Milwaukee at American Family Field, which has a slightly above-league average NRFI rate this year. Since it’s indoors, the heat and wind don’t impact it, which could be part of the reason. Both the Reds and Brewers are also above the league average in NRFI, so getting them at almost even money is good value.
The Brewers will go with Robert Gasser, who has hit NRFI in 10 of his 13 starts (76.9%) in his career. He has not been as consistent this year (50%), but he still has the stuff to get the job done on Monday night against the Reds, who score in the eighth-fewest first-innings of a team in the majors.
The Reds will go with lefty Nick Lodolo, which should help since Milwaukee’s lineup is a little less effective against lefties. Lodolo has a four-game NRFI streak and has hit NRFI in six of his eight starts (75%) this year.
