The Valkyries are hosting the Liberty on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 163.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Preview
After getting blown out by the Aces last Sunday, the Valkyries bounced back and won two straight games vs. the Dream. Golden State is 12-7 and the club ranks third in net rating this season. The Valkyries hang their hat on the defensive end, ranking second in defensive rating, whereas they are just an average club on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth in offensive rating.
Gabby Williams has been a nice fit in her first season with Golden State, leading the team with 16.3 PPG, but the rest of the Valkyries have been inconsistent on offense. Reigning Most Improved Player of the Year Veronica Burton is averaging a career-high 12.4 PPG, but this is just a slight improvement from last year and she is shooting just 38% from the field.
The hope was that Burton would become a more legitimate offensive threat in her fifth season to complement her strong defense, and while she has had some great performances, she has hit a rough patch recently. Burton has scored no more than 12 points in seven straight games and this isn’t exactly a get-right spot for her, as the Liberty rank fourth in defensive rating. Burton did only score 13 points when the Valkyries defeated the Liberty in New York by 17 points on May 21st, so Golden State can definitely win this matchup without a big night from Burton and rely on its defense to get the job done.
New York is 12-7 and ranks second in net rating, trailing only the 14-4 Lynx. The Liberty, however, are coming off an 11-point loss to the Storm, which was embarrassing, as Seattle had lost 11 in a row before this. New York rested Breanna Stewart for that matchup and the superstar will be back tonight, but Satou Sabally will miss her second in a row, as she is in concussion protocol and out indefinitely.
Sabally was hit in the face this past Tuesday vs. the Aces and this comes after she suffered a severe concussion in the WNBA Finals last season, so it’s hard to say when we will see her again this season. Sabally was just finding her footing with the Liberty, too, scoring 13+ points in four of her previous five before exiting vs. Las Vegas.
Sabally makes an impact on both ends of the floor and her being sidelined is a notable loss for the Liberty. Sabrina Ionescu is healthy again, though, and she has looked better after a cold start, scoring 16 and 14 points in her past two. Still, Ionescu hasn’t scored over 16 points in seven games this season after averaging 17+ PPG for four straight seasons.
New York needs Ionescu to get back to her All-Star ways with Sabally missing to complement the outstanding Stewart. The 31-year-old has been awesome in her 10th season, leading the Liberty with 19.4 PPG. After being rested vs. the Storm, Stewart should be just fine vs. the Valkyries, but Burton and Golden State’s elite defense may give the inconsistent Ionescu problems, which could be the difference in this matchup.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
Not having Sabally is a notable loss for the Liberty and the Valkyries should be able to win this matchup on their home floor.
Golden State is an excellent 9-3 at home this season while New York is just 3-3 coming off a loss. The Valkyries are 5-3 ATS as a home favorite and they are a strong bet to cover this small 1.5-point spread.
