When the World Cup began, Japan was widely considered a potential dark horse, as the Asian giants haven’t lost since September in any competition. However, the knockout draw wasn’t kind to the Samurai Blue; after finishing second in Group F, they were placed against Group C winners Brazil, which throttled Asian opposition (South Korea) in the first knockout stage in 2022.
Monday’s match will begin at 1 p.m. ET in Houston. The winner will go on to face either Ivory Coast or Norway, who will play on Tuesday in Dallas.
The Seleçao are -140 favorites to win in regular time (-275 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Japan is +400 (+210 to advance). There are +285 odds that the tie will require extra time to decide.
Below, I’ll break down this knockout clash and provide my favorite bet.
Brazil vs. Japan Best Bet:
- Algeria or Draw and O1.5 (-105): Algeria has a similar-quality attack and the far better defense, but it matches up well against Austria. Das Team have been sloppy and the Fennecs clinical from set pieces, and Algeria’s press could pose major challenges. Fennecs goalie Luca Zidane might prevent his team from winning, but a draw will be sufficient to finish third.
Brazil vs. Japan prediction, pick
Both teams looked fairly comfortable in the group stage, and neither’s advancement ever looked particularly in doubt. Brazil got off to a pretty slow start, as it was arguably out-played by Morocco in the teams’ 1-1 draw, but it really settled into the tournament after switching from a 4-2-2-2 to a 4-1-4-1 and swapping Igor Thiago out for Matheus Cunha, picking up 3-0 wins over both Haiti and Scotland and quelling all the doubts that its lackluster qualification campaign invited. Meanwhile, the Samurai Blue played in one of the best games of the group stage by drawing the Netherlands 2-2 late, but they could only manage a 1-1 draw with Sweden on the final day to finish two points behind Oranje. It wasn’t a terrible effort overall, but winning the group with a three-goal victory surely could’ve seemed possible after the Netherlands only managed a two-goal win over pitiful Tunisia.
Vinicius Júnior has finally translated his tremendous club form into production for his country, and that’s been critical for the Seleçao, especially with Raphinha injured. In the group stage, Vini managed to put eight of his 12 shots on target for four goals, and Cunha has contributed three goals of his own, leading the line for an attack that has been much stronger than anticipated before the tournament began. Bruno Guimarães also leads all players with three assists. In the group stage, Brazil managed 2.45 expected goals per match, more than any team besides Canada, and it produced the second-most expected goals per shot. The Seleçao also completed passes at the fifth-highest rate, and they played a variety of styles, mostly preferring long sequences and build-up play but also being effective on fast breaks. Brazil was slightly more gettable defensively, allowing just the 17th-fewest expected goals per match, but it had the second-highest aerial duel win rate and racked up among the most tackles. It also forced among the most high turnovers. Plus, Alisson has been spectacular between the sticks, saving 10 of the 11 shots on target he’s faced.
Japan’s group stage was more of a team effort. While the Samurai Blue didn’t have a standout striker, five different players found the back of the net twice, as Eredivisie Golden Boot winner Ayase Ueda carried his hot domestic form over into this tournament. Daizen Maeda, whose heroics won Celtic its fifth straight Scottish Premiership title, scored the eventual equalizer against Blågult. Overall, Japan managed 1.31 expected goals per match, a middle-of-the-pack figure, but it was clinical, managing the eighth-most goals minus expected goals per match, and it was the seventh-strongest crossing team in the competition. Defensively, the Samurai Blue were especially stellar, allowing the fourth-fewest expected goals and the ninth-fewest shots per match, though the looks it did allow were high-quality, with 73.91% coming inside the box. Japan didn’t record many tackles or interceptions and lost a slight majority of both its ground and aerial duels, and it committed among the most fouls, but it did an excellent job recovering from its mistakes. Zion Suzuki hasn’t had too much to do, but he made a critical save against Alexander Isak late to secure second in the group.
Neither of these teams is one that “deserves” to go out in the Round of 32. The Samurai Blue’s compact defense and their timely playmakers could make them a threat to make a deep run if not for their draw, but they allow too many shots from close range and Vinicius is far too talented both as a dribbler and a finisher not to take advantage. I still don’t expect this game to be uncompetitive like the Seleçao’s 2022 Round of 16 win over a slightly weaker AFC team in South Korea was, but at the end, Brazil’s wingers are simply too good. Japan could easily get one past Alisson, as Maeda and Ritsu Doan are in hot enough form to punish the Seleçao’s comparatively weak wing-backs, but the safer play is to go for Brazil in a high-scoring thriller.
Best Bet: Brazil Win and Both to Score (+295)
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