Interleague rivals are set to meet on Saturday for the Beltway Series. The Nationals (41-42) have enjoyed their best season in over a half-decade. It’s been a more difficult campaign for the Orioles (39-44), fourth place in the AL East. However, a wide-open Junior Circuit means Baltimore is very much in the hunt for a wild card spot. Which of these squads has the edge heading into tonight’s matchup?
The Orioles are favorites (-114) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Washington and Baltimore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Orioles pick, best bet
- Nationals ML (-106): An elite Nationals offense gives them a puncher’s chance against just about anyone. With an above-average hurler in Griffin toeing the slab, I’ll back Washington tonight as slight underdogs against a middling Orioles squad.
Nationals vs. Orioles prediction, preview
Foster Griffin has brought some much-needed stability to an otherwise mediocre Nationals pitching staff. Through 91.1 innings pitched (16 starts), the 30-year-old has recorded a 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 89 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). He comes into this one on a heater, having allowed one earned run in each of his previous four appearances. The southpaw’s best trait is limiting base on balls; his 6.1% walk rate ranks within the 84th percentile among qualified starters. That’s in spite of a fastball that tops out at just over 91 MPH.
The Orioles are an above-average lineup, averaging the 11th-most runs per game in baseball (4.64). With that being said, this might be a difficult matchup for the O’s. They’ve put up a .680 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, eighth-worst in the majors. That’s without factoring in the absence of Adley Rutschman, currently on the injured list with a concussion. Baltimore also has a knack for working the count, averaging the seventh-most walks per game (3.77). As previously mentioned, Griffin doesn’t give out many free passes.
These two offensively-minded clubs share plenty of similarities. That includes subpar pitching staffs. Brandon Young, much like Griffin, has been a pleasant surprise for the Birds. Over 12 starts (67.1 IP), he’s delivered a 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 49 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). However, it’s fair to say that Young has been somewhat fortunate this season. He sits below the 50th percentile in xERA (4.25), xBA (.255), walk rate (8.7%) and strikeout rate (17.1%). Although the righty has gotten batters to chase, that alone isn’t enough to ensure future success.
Young will need to be at his best during this evening’s contest. The Nationals, for all their pitching woes, are an absolute juggernaut on offense. They rank first in runs scored (439), fourth in home runs (109) and sixth in OPS (.739). Leading the charge is the two-headed monster of James Wood (145 wRC+) and CJ Abrams (144 wRC+). Together, the All-Stars have combined for 37 home runs, 106 RBIs and 26 stolen bases. Washington is averaging 5.20 runs per game on the road, fourth-best in baseball.
Best Bet: Nationals ML (-106)
Whenever the Nationals get decent pitching, they’re a difficult club to beat. Griffin’s tendency for avoiding walks should play well against an Orioles team that relies on them. As a southpaw, a spacious left field at Camden Yards should prevent fly balls from leaving the park. In comparison, Young has out-performed his peripherals all season. Washington’s potent lineup seems like the kind of group that could take advantage tonight.
