Postseason hopefuls are on a collision course this evening in Cleveland. The Mariners (41-41), despite their mediocre record, are clinging onto first place in the AL West. They’ll hope to pick up a much-needed road win against the Guardians (42-39). Which of these American League contenders will come out on top tonight?
This is a pick ’em, with both sides at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Seattle and Cleveland.
Mariners vs. Guardians pick, best bet today
- Guardians ML (-110): Neither Cantillo or Castillo, at this point in their careers, are aces. However, both pitchers have a golden opportunity against a pair of struggling lineups. Ultimately, Seattle’s difficulty hitting left-handed pitching could prove to be the difference on Friday.
Mariners vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Luis Castillo is one of the more decorated starters in all of Major League Baseball. However, the three-time All-Star has looked like a shell of his old self this season. Through 70.2 innings pitched (12 starts), the right-hander has recorded a 5.22 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 69 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). It’s not as if the veteran has gotten unlucky, either. According to his Savant page, Castillo sits at the 30th percentile or worse in xERA (4.61), xBA (.262), average exit velocity (90.4 MPH), barrel rate (9.7%) and hard-hit rate (44.7%).
If there was ever a time for Castillo to get back on track, it’s tonight. The Guardians usually have a difficult time rostering big bats, other than Jose Ramirez. That’s true once again this season, even more so with J-Ram (hand) currently on the injured list. Cleveland has only scored 34 runs over its previous ten contests, third-worst in baseball during that time. However, Castillo has only managed to produce a 5.94 ERA during his previous three meetings with the Guards.
Toeing the slab for Cleveland in this one will be Joey Cantillo. He’s far from a household name, but the 26-year-old has earned his spot in one of baseball’s better rotations. Over 80.0 innings (16 starts), he’s accounted for a 4.05 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 76 strikeouts (8.6 K/9). Much like Castillo, there are some warning signs here if you look under the hood. Not only does Cantillo surrender plenty of hits (8.4 H/9), but he’s only at the 23rd percentile in walk rate (10.9%). Unsurprisingly, there tends to be plenty of traffic on the base paths when the southpaw is pitching. However, he’s proven to be more effective at home (3.74 ERA) than on the road (4.27 ERA).
If you thought Cleveland had an inept offense, just look at the Mariners. They’ve scored an MLB-worst 21 runs during their previous ten contests. The next-closest squad in that time is the Braves with 30. The M’s can slug it with the best of them, having hit the ninth-most home runs in baseball (100). However, that’s where most of the positives end for this offense. Seattle is 27th in batting average (.231), 23rd in on-base percentage (.311) and 26th in slugging percentage (.384). In addition, the team has a league-worst .614 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Guardians ML (-110)
Neither of these clubs have impressed at the plate recently. However, I have more faith in Cantillo shutting down a Mariners offense that struggles against lefties. In comparison, it feels like we’re still waiting for Castillo to return to form. At the season’s midpoint, with mediocre peripherals, he’s not the ace he once was. In front of their home crowd, I’ll back the Guardians tonight.
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