The NL Central isn’t decided by a particularly close margin at the moment. The Milwaukee Brewers are atop the standings by 6.5 games, separated from the second-place Chicago Cubs. Of course, the Cubbies are chasing the top spot, but even a four-game winning streak hasn’t helped them make progress as the Brew Crew has matched it in recent days. Tonight, they kick off a weekend set in which there can only be one winner. Of course, this series could prove pivotal down the line when the time for postseason seeding approaches.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Cubs vs. Brewers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Chicago Cubs
After winning seven of their last 10 games, there’s a lot going right for the Cubs right now. The offense is surging, as is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and the club is up to 44-37 on the year. Moreover, they have a +37 run differential that’s more than respectable for a postseason candidate. However, it’s just not enough to pass Milwaukee for now. Chicago’s 4.93 runs per game are the sixth most of any team and an OPS of .740 ranks sixth in the MLB as well. The full slash line reads .243/.337/.403, with the OBP certainly fueled by an 11.1% BB% that paces the sport as well as a low 21.3% K%. Not only is the plate process high-quality, but the power pops as well. The Cubbies have 95 homers with a .160 ISO, the latter of which is good for 13th around baseball. However, there could be trouble tonight against one of the best pitchers in the game, especially since they slash a decreased .237/.332/.400 against RHP.
For the Cubs, RHP Colin Rea will start today. He’s just 5-5 in his 16 total appearances this year (12 starts), throwing to the tune of a 4.99 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and just 59 strikeouts across 79.1 IP. The bullpen backing him has a 3.84 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and 11.9% K-BB%.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are the sole reason that Chicago isn’t at the top of the division. With a 6.5-game lead in the NL Central, Milwaukee maintains a reputation as one of the best clubs in baseball with a 49-29 record and a +123 run differential that beats all but one other team’s marks. Plus, they’re also 7-3 over the last 10 outings with a four-game winning streak. The Brew Crew’s OPS clocks in at .729, good for 10th in the sport behind a .254/.338/.391 slash line. Yes, a .138 ISO is one of the lowest of any club, and 70 homers are nothing to write home about. However, that doesn’t seem to matter with 5.22 runs per game. The plate process is excellent with a 10.8% BB% that sits third as well as a 21.1% K%, so they find ways to get on base and keep from going down swinging. Tonight, the Brewers get the better of their splits with a .259/.343/.407 line against right-handed pitching, too.
Superstar Jacob Misiorowski is in line to start for Milwaukee after going 8-3 in his 15 games thus far. The young fireballer has a 1.45 ERA, an 0.75 WHIP and 138 punchouts in what can only be described as one of the best campaigns we’ve seen in recent seasons from any pitcher, much less one who averages 100.2 mph on his fastball. The Brewers’ bullpen is also quite productive, amassing a 3.56 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a 14.5% K-BB%.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -252 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Cubs are significant underdogs with +203 odds to win outright. The total sits at seven combined runs this evening.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-121)
It feels like a bit of a cop-out to just take the Brewers on the run line, but there’s just too much in their favor for now. Misiorowski is a top-five pitcher in the MLB at absolute worst, and he shredded the Cubs in his lone start against them last month for 6.0 scoreless innings with three hits and eight strikeouts. He’s far, far better than Rea, who’s on the wrong side of the splits this evening and brings a 5.85 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP this month. Look at it this way as well. Misiorowski has allowed just three earned runs since the start of May despite tossing 60.1 innings. Is that a guy I want to bet against? Certainly not.
