The 2026 FIFA World Cup continues tonight at 10 PM EST as Paraguay takes on Australia in Group D. Let’s dive into my favorite bet for this match.
Best bet for Paraguay vs. Australia
- Draw (+230): This is a tricky Group D match because both teams have something to protect. Australia can secure second place with a draw, while Paraguay needs a win to jump the Socceroos but could still be in strong position to advance as a third-place team with one point. With both teams coming off low-margin performances and neither attack creating consistent high-quality chances, the draw will be our best shot.
Paraguay vs. Australia prediction, pick
The stakes are pretty clear in Group D. The United States has already clinched the top spot, while Turkey has been eliminated. That leaves Australia and Paraguay fighting for second place, and the setup gives Australia a slightly cleaner path. The Aussies can advance directly with a draw, while Paraguay needs a win to take second place.
That does not mean Paraguay has to play this like a reckless must-win match from the opening whistle. A draw would leave both teams on four points, and that should give Paraguay a realistic chance to move on as one of the best third-place teams. That is important for the betting angle, because this game could become more conservative if it is level deep into the second half.
Australia opened the tournament with a 2-0 win over Turkey, but the underlying numbers were not quite as dominant as the scoreline. Turkey outshot Australia and edged the expected-goals battle, while Australia was clinical on the counter through Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe. Australia then struggled to create much of anything against the United States in a 2-0 loss, so this is still a team that may be more comfortable defending structure than chasing the match.
Paraguay’s tournament has followed a similar pattern. It was beaten 4-1 by the United States in the opener, then bounced back with a gritty 1-0 win over Turkey. That result kept Paraguay alive, but it was not exactly a clean attacking performance. Paraguay scored in the opening minutes, went down to 10 men before halftime and spent most of the second half defending under heavy pressure.
The Miguel Almirón suspension also matters here. Paraguay needs more attacking ambition than Australia, but it will be without one of its most important attacking pieces. That makes it harder to trust Paraguay to break down an Australia team that can afford to stay compact and protect the point.
There is always some danger in betting a draw, especially when one team technically needs a win to finish second. But the group-stage math makes this a different kind of match. Australia has every reason to avoid opening itself up, and Paraguay may not need to sell out if a point keeps its third-place advancement hopes in good shape.
This feels more like a tense, controlled match than brawl. Australia’s draw incentive, Paraguay’s Almirón absence, and both teams’ uneven attacking numbers all point toward an inconclusive result.
Best Bet: Draw (+230)
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