Another edition of baseball’s most heated rivalry is on tap tonight at Fenway Park. It’s been a terrific campaign for the Yankees (48-31), owners of the American League’s best record. The outlook is far worse for the Red Sox (32-46), a would-be World Series contender currently sitting at the bottom of the Junior Circuit. Still, throw the standings out the window on Thursday. When these ancient foes take the field, anything is possible.
The Yankees are favorites (-148) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between New York and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
- Yankees -1.5 (+119): Schlittler is an absolute beast, and the light-hitting Red Sox have shown no signs of life on offense. Early is an above-average hurler, but this is a bad spot. The rookie pitches worse at home, and now he’ll face a Yankees lineup that feasts against southpaws.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Cam Schlittler’s meteoric rise to ace status kicked off last October, when he shut out the Red Sox over eight dominant innings. The 25-year-old has carried that momentum into 2026, looking the part of a Cy Young candidate. Through 95.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 109 strikeouts (10.3 K/9). He’s coming into this one off of arguably his best start of the season, a six-inning, 13-strikeout gem vs. Cincinnati. Schlittler has allowed one earned run or fewer in 12 of his 16 starts so far. Per Savant, the righty ranks inside the 90th percentile in xERA (2.76), fastball velocity (97.7 MPH), chase rate (35.1%), strikeout rate (29.5%) and walk rate (4.9%).
Schlittler is a difficult assignment for any lineup at this point. That’s especially true for the Red Sox, a group that has done next to nothing offensively. They’re averaging an MLB-worst 3.41 runs per game at home, despite playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. In addition, Boston has the league’s fourth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.672). The absence of Roman Anthony (finger) has only made this group that much worse at the plate. As previously mentioned, Schlittler has enjoyed ample success in this matchup. Over three career meetings with the Sox, postseason included, the second-year pro has a 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 22 strikeouts (9.1 K/9).
If Boston is going to hang around in this one, it’ll likely take a stellar showing from Connelly Early. Fortunately, the rookie has held his own throughout most of the season. He’s managed to put up a 3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (8.7 K/9) over 15 starts (81.2 IP). However, he’s pitched worse at Fenway (4.82 ERA) than he has on the road (2.64 ERA). A look under the hood isn’t all too promising, either. Early sits below the 50th percentile in xERA (4.40), whiff rate (23.0%), strikeout rate (22.5%), walk rate (8.8%) and barrel rate (10.8%). He’s also on the hook for a mediocre 1.5 HR/9 ratio. That’s not ideal when facing the sport’s most homer-happy lineup.
The Yankees aren’t coming into this one in peak form. They’ve scored 14 runs over their last five games, third-fewest in the majors during that stretch. It’s worth noting that reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge (ribs) is on the injured list as well. Still, it’s likely a matter of time until the Bronx Bombers get back to their old ways. After all, they usually manage to crush southpaws. They’ve produced an American League-best .786 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt comes into this one hot, having clubbed two homers last night off of Tarik Skubal. There’s a good chance manager Aaron Boone slots the veteran as his leadoff hitter this evening. During two starts against the Pinstripes, postseason included, Early has notched a 6.00 ERA.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+119)
It’s always going to be an uphill climb against Schlittler, who has been remarkably consistent this season. He’s due for a letdown start (as all aces are), but Boston shows no signs of putting it together at the plate. On the other side, New York’s knack for hitting lefties puts Early at a disadvantage. Expect a comfortable win tonight for the Yankees.
