Summer is officially on, and the business end of the baseball season is almost here. Nearly half of the 162-game regular season schedule has been played, so teams are starting to know where they stand. It’s no longer too early to think about the playoffs, though the Toronto Blue Jays, who currently occupy the final Wild Card spot in the American League, probably haven’t stopped thinking about the playoffs since coming four strikes away from a World Series title last fall.
Tonight, Toronto will look to claim the rubber match of a series against a fellow Wild Card contender in the Houston Astros, who are currently two games behind the Blue Jays in the standings.
Mike Burrows will start for Houston, and Trey Yesavage will crest the hill for Toronto. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros at Blue Jays Best Bets
- Over 8.5 Runs (-110): I don’t trust Burrows, who has been one of the league’s worst qualified starters this season, and while Yesavage is one of baseball’s most talented hurlers, he’s had a few rough outings as of late and the splits aren’t in his favor.
- Toronto Blue Jays O2.5 Runs – 1st 5 Innings (-105): As I said, I really don’t trust Burrows; he’s allowed at least three runs in the first five innings in 10 of his 15 starts, and in case he gets pulled before completing the fifth inning, Toronto has the better bullpen.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, preview
Most of the Astros’ 2017 and 2022 title mainstays, Jose Altuve aside, are now off the roster, so this was always expected to be a re-tooling year after Houston narrowly missed the playoffs in 2025. Still, over the past month, the Astros have played at a postseason pace; after falling to 20-31 on May 20, Houston has picked up 18 wins in its last 30 games. Its offense has been a top-10 unit this season, as Yordan Alvarez leads all of baseball in OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS and the American League in batting average, hits, runs, and homers. Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, and Isaac Paredes have chipped in with contributions of their own. Meanwhile, although the Astros have had the league’s fourth-worst pitching staff overall, they’ve improved to merely 14th-worst over the last 30 days. Their staff isn’t deep, but closer Bryan King has been a bright spot and ace Hunter Brown is back, so they could make a playoff push if their offense keeps raking and Brown provides Cy Young-level production every six days.
Toronto has been the more disappointing team, even though its record is better. The Blue Jays started the season 3-0 after sweeping the Athletics, but they haven’t been above .500 since the opening stretch of the season despite hovering around that mark for most of June. In particular, their offense, which was one of the league’s best in 2025, has been the 10th-worst in baseball so far this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s OPS+ is below 100, and by that metric, their best hitter has been rookie Kazuma Okamoto, whose strong season has been overshadowed by his countryman Munetaka Murakami’s. Toronto also hasn’t made up for it with its pitching; its starters rank just 19th in ERA and its relievers 11th. Closer Louis Varland has been tremendous, as has setup man Tyler Rogers, but former closer Jeff Hoffman and 41-year-old Max Scherzer have really struggled. The Blue Jays have dealt with a lot of injuries, especially to their pitching staff, and should be able to improve, but the gap between them and the New York Yankees atop the division (8.5 games) might be too big to overcome.
Unfortunately for Houston, Burrows has been a major part of the issue. He leads the American League in losses and earned runs this season, sporting a 5.79 ERA, and while he received a reset in the form of a one-inning bullpen outing last Friday, he should have a relatively normal starter’s load tonight. Advanced stats don’t paint such a positive picture of him, either; he ranks in just the third percentile in pitching run value, owning a 25th-percentile expected ERA and 22nd-percentile expected batting average. In particular, Burrows has been prone to giving up fly balls, and he has a 31st-percentile barrel rate despite mostly allowing soft contact. That should benefit Toronto, which has hit grounders at the 10th-highest rate. His biggest strength is his 75th-percentile chase rate, but that’s already an issue at the Blue Jays’ baseline, and they’ve made up for it by making contact at the second-highest rate on pitches outside the zone. The splits should be mixed; Burrows has been somewhat better on the road this season, but Toronto’s offense has enjoyed more success at home.
Yesavage should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup. He got his official rookie season off to a tremendous start, pitching to a 1.07 ERA through his first five starts, and though he’s cooled down since with a 6.07 mark over his last five starts, it’s still worth trusting a pitcher who absolutely stymied arguably the league’s two most talented offenses in the 2025 playoffs at the age of 23. Advanced stats are pretty friendly to Yesavage; he has an 88th-percentile expected ERA and a 93rd-percentile expected batting average, and he still ranks near the top quartile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate despite struggling to induce ground balls. The Astros aren’t necessarily in position to take advantage of his two major weaknesses, as they both hit grounders and walk at roughly league-average rates. They also make contact on chases at a relatively low rate and are more willing than most to sit on pitches in the zone, so Yesavage could put them on the back foot, where he’s been comparatively dominant. Still, the splits aren’t in his favor; he’s been far worse at the Rogers Centre and Houston has been better on the road.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
Yesterday’s game went over the total, and while tonight’s starting pitching matchup is better, Yesavage’s recent form isn’t great, the splits aren’t in his favor, and the Blue Jays’ bullpen is slightly more taxed overall. Toronto’s offense has gotten better as of late.
Strong Lean: Toronto Blue Jays O2.5 Runs – 1st 5 Innings (-105)
Perhaps Burrows’ relief outing served as a sufficient reset, but given that he’s allowed three or more runs before the fifth inning in 10 of his 15 starts, it’s hard not to bank on the Blue Jays to clear this relatively low bar.
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