Our first clinching day on Wednesday was electric. Thursday brings us three new groups with standings to be settled, teams to be eliminated, and Round of 32 spots to be won. I’ll break down all the clinching scenarios based on the results for all six games on Thursday.
Group E 2026 World Cup Clinching Scenarios, 4:00 p.m. ET
Curacao (0-1-1, -6 GD) vs. Ivory Coast (1-0-1, +0 GD)
- Curacao is eliminated with a draw or a loss.
- Ivory Coast clinches the second spot in the group with a win or a draw.
- If Curacao wins and Ecuador draws or loses to Germany, Curacao clinches the second spot in the group.
- If Curacao wins and Ecuador beats Germany, Curacao clinches the second spot if they make up the five-goal gap in goal difference.
- If Curacao and Ecuador both win and Curacao cannot close the goal differential gap, Curacao has a >99% chance of advancing as the third-place team.
Ecuador (0-1-1, -1 GD) vs. Germany (2-0-0, +7 GD)
- Germany has already clinched Group E, and this result won’t affect their standing.
- If Ecuador draws or loses, it will be eliminated.
- If Ecuador wins and the Ivory Coast beats or draws Curacao, Ecuador will finish third in the group with a >99% chance of advancing as the third-place team
- If Ecuador wins and Curacao beats Ecuador, Ecuador would advance as the second-place team on goal difference; if Curacao wins by six more goals or five more goals and has fewer total yellow cards, Ecuador will finish third in the group with a >99% chance of advancing as the third-place team
Group F 2026 World Cup Clinching Scenarios, 7:00 p.m. ET
Japan (1-1-0, +4 GD) vs. Sweden (1-0-1, +0 GD)
- If Japan wins and the Netherlands loses or draws against Tunisia, Japan wins Group F
- If Japan wins and the Netherlands wins by a lesser number of goals, Japan wins Group F on goal differential
- If Japan and the Netherlands both win by the same number of goals or both draw, whichever team has the fewest total yellow cards wins Group F, and Sweden finishes third with a >99% chance of qualifying for the Round of 32
- If Sweden beats Japan and the Netherlands draws or loses to Tunisia, Sweden wins Group F
- If Sweden beats Japan and the Netherlands beat Tunisia, Sweden finishes second in the group, and Japan finishes third with a >99% chance of qualifying for the Round of 32
- If Sweden and Japan draw and the Netherlands beat Tunisia, Japan finishes second in the group and Sweden finishes third with a >99% chance of qualifying for the Round of 32
- If Sweden and Japan draw and the Netherlands lose to Tunisia by four goals or more, Sweden can finish second in the group based on goal/yellow card difference
Tunisia (0-0-2, -8 GD) vs. Netherlands (1-1-0, +4 GD)
- Tunisia has already been eliminated from knockout contention
- If the Netherlands wins and Japan draws or loses against Sweden, the Netherlands wins Group F
- If the Netherlands wins and Japan wins against Sweden, the winner of Group F is decided by goal difference; if the two teams win by the same number of goals, the team with the fewest total yellow cards wins the group
- If the Netherlands draws Tunisia and Japan draws or beats Sweden, the Netherlands will finish second in the group
- If the Netherlands draw Tunisia and Sweden beats Japan, the Netherlands will finish second in the group on goal difference
- If the Netherlands lose to Tunisia and Sweden beats Japan, goal difference/yellow cards would decide second place between the Netherlands and Japan. The third-place team would have a >99% chance of advancing
Group D 2026 World Cup Clinching Scenarios, 10:00 p.m. ET
Australia (1-0-1, +0 GD) vs. Paraguay (1-0-1, -2 GD)
- The winner clinches the second spot in the group and advances to the Round of 32
- If Australia and Paraguay draw, Australia clinches the second spot in the group, and Paraguay finishes third with a >99% chance of advancing
- If Paraguay loses by one goal or Australia loses by three goals, they have a 67% chance of advancing from third place
- If Paraguay loses by two goals or Australia loses by four goals, they have a 54% chance of advancing from third place
- If Paraguay loses by three goals or Australia loses by five goals, they have a 41% chance of advancing from third place
- If Paraguay loses by four or more goals or Australia loses by six or more goals, they have a 32% chance of advancing from third place
- If Australia loses by one goal, they have a 94% chance of advancing from third place
- If Australia loses by two goals, they have an 83% chance of advancing from third place
Turkey (0-0-2, -3 GD) vs. United States (2-0-0, +5 GD)
- The United States has already clinched Group D
- Turkey has already been eliminated from contention
