After last night’s action, the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox are once again tied for the top of the AL Central. Both teams have cooled off a little bit lately, so grabbing momentum for the division race adds some additional stakes heading into the remainder of this series over the next couple of days. Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Guardians vs. White Sox matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are 41-38 but are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, dealing with some pretty significant injuries as Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter remain sidelined, among others. Cleveland’s run differential on the year slots in at -8 after a 6-5 loss last night, and the club’s 3.99 runs per game remain third fewest of any MLB club. Cleveland’s bats are inconsistent with a .682 OPS that’s also around the bottom of the sport, slashing .228/.313/.369 overall. Tonight, they face a right-hander with a line of .227/.311/.374 against such pitchers. The bats have been cold as of late, too, amassing a .635 OPS over the last two weeks. The Guardians’ 10.2% BB% and 21.7% K% are both positives, but they don’t make up for a lack of power. With just 74 homers and a .141 ISO, there’s much to be desired in that regard.
LHP Parker Messick starts tonight with a 7-3 record. He has a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 91 strikeouts through 86.2 IP. His team’s bullpen is also quite effective with the 10th-best ERA at 3.96, plus a 1.30 WHIP and a 17.0% K-BB%.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are back (tied) for the top spot in the division now with the chance to add a modicum of breathing room tonight. They’ve now hit the 40-win mark at 40-37 but remain 4-6 over their last 10 games. Here’s the thing, though. A -3 run differential isn’t too shabby given the pitching staff’s state, especially when the bats average 4.66 runs a night and border on the top 10 in scoring. Chicago’s OPS of .729 sits 13th on a slash line of .238/.319/.410. There’s no doubt this lineup is licking their lips ahead of this matchup too, slashing .242/.326/.438 for a .764 OPS against southpaws. Plus, the club’s overall ISO of .173 ranks fourth in the MLB and gets a bump to first at .196 vs. lefties. With 107 homers this year and 37 against LHP, this team could pop at the plate tonight. The biggest knock by far on the White Sox is an elevated 24.2% K%, though a 9.1% BB% isn’t bad by any means.
RHP Sean Burke starts for Chicago with a 4-4 record in 15 games (11 starts). He brings a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 81 Ks across 81.0 IP. The White Sox bullpen has a 4.39 ERA that ranks 19th in the MLB, plus a 1.38 WHIP and 10.6% K-BB%.
Guardians vs. White Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Guardians as slight -114 Moneyline favorites on the road today, while the White Sox are listed at -105 odds to win outright. This matchup is a virtual toss-up with the run total set at just seven.
Best Bet: CHI White Sox ML (-105)
The Guardians’ starter is an awesome one, with Messick dealing so far this season. He keeps exit velocity down a little lower than most guys do and has limited barrels at an above-average rate as well, so he may handle this slugging White Sox offense well… at least in terms of homers. It’s tough to see him entirely shutting down a lineup that’s one of the best in the MLB against southpaws though, especially given their ability to drive the ball when facing lefties. Perhaps this game is close when Messick is in play, but it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him give up a couple of earned runs here. I like getting the Sox at near-even odds given the lefty matchup, particularly since Burke has been a solid starter himself and won’t be as shaky as some other options in the rotation against a poor offense.
